The first round of the National Lacrosse League playoffs starts this weekend with eight teams seeking to make an NLL title run. Several sportsbooks are offering NLL championship odds, and FanDuel is even offering odds for for teams to make the NLL Final, NLL finalist matchups and NLL Finals exact outcomes. Let's take a look at my favorite futures bets ahead of the opening round of games.
Back in early December, I gave out three title futures: Toronto Rock (+750), Halifax Thunderbirds (+1000) and Rochester Knighthawks (+2500). Toronto enters the playoffs as the favorite to win it all with odds no longer than +220, while Halifax is now +650, and Rochester is +2200. Toronto is still my pick to win it all, but there's no value in betting the Rock at their current odds.
Instead, I'd rather target the top team on the other side of the bracket in San Diego.
The second-seeded Seals are +410 to win it all, and despite failing to make it to the NLL Finals in two straight playoff appearances, they have the most advantageous path.
San Diego faces Panther City in the first round, and if they win, they will play the winner of Albany and Halifax in a three-game series in the semifinals. The Seals beat all three of those teams during the regular season, and their closest game was a 10-9 win in their first meeting with Panther City.
In their most recent game with Panther City just two weeks ago, San Diego won 14-10. San Diego also handled Halifax, 12-8, and doubled up Albany earlier in the season, 14-7. While Toronto is still the Seals' likeliest NLL Finals opponent, being on this side of the bracket means San Diego also avoids having to face Buffalo or Georgia—two teams that match up better with the Seals—until the NLL Finals.
The path is favorable enough to bet one of the most balanced teams and deepest rosters to win it all. If you parlayed San Diego's expected moneyline/series odds, then the result would be closer to +325, making +410 at FanDuel a great price to bet San Diego to win the 2024 NLL Finals.
If you bet the futures I gave out in December (particularly two units on Toronto at +750), I'd bet 2.5 units on San Diego at this price. If this will be your first NLL future, one unit will suffice.
Despite Toronto winning the regular-season matchup, betting an exacta of San Diego to defeat Toronto in the NLL Finals at +1100 also has some value and is worth sprinkling 0.2 units on it.
I also think there is value in betting someone other than Toronto to face San Diego in the NLL Finals. The Rock lost just three games this season—two of those losses were to their arch-rivals in Buffalo. If both the Bandits and Rock win their quarterfinals game, they'll face each other in the semifinals for the fourth straight season.
In three straight playoff appearances, Buffalo has ended Toronto's season. While I think this Rock roster is built to beat Buffalo and finally get over the hump, the value is there in betting the Bandits to advance to their fourth straight NLL Finals. At +850 on FanDuel, I'm betting 0.25 units on the San Diego Seals to face the Buffalo Bandits in the NLL Finals.
While Buffalo secured a win over San Diego back in December, the Seals have the firepower to compete and win a three-game series against the Bandits. Buffalo's defense has had plenty of cracks this year, and while they've stabilized in recent weeks, they'll have their hands full against a Sam Diego squad that appears finally fully healthy. Bet 0.1 units on an exacta of San Diego to defeat Buffalo in the NLL Finals at +1800.
