Conference play is in full swing as we enter Week 10 in NCAA Division I men’s lacrosse. This week, I have my sights on three games, with a bet on a total, side and a short moneyline underdog. Let’s dive into my NCAA lacrosse Week 10 best bets.
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UMass (-9.5) vs. St. Bonaventure
| UMass Odds | N/A |
| St. Bonaventure Odds | N/A |
| Total | 20.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
We start off with an Atlantic 10 matchup as 6-4 UMass hosts 1-10 St. Bonaventure. St. Bonaventure is a 9.5-point underdog for the second straight week and the total is an extremely low 20.5. Yet, given the teams in this matchup, I don’t think this total is low enough.
UMass has been able to pull out wins thanks to a revamped defense featuring transfers Chris Campbell, Giuseppe Chiovera and Ryan Sharkey in front of returning starting goalie Matt Knote. The Minutemen have held teams to the fifth-best goals against average (9.40) and are the sixth-most efficient defense in college lacrosse, according to Lacrosse Reference.
While the UMass defense has been elite, the offense has had its issues and ranks 63rd in offensive efficiency. Seven of UMass’ 10 games have stayed under 20.5 and its defense will have the luxury of playing a St. Bonaventure offense that ranks 68th in offensive efficiency, 72nd in shooting percentage and 70th in pace.
Speaking of St. Bonaventure, the Bonnies have been one of the all-around worst teams in college lacrosse and a lot of their issues stem from their offense. St. Bonaventure has put up double digits just four times this season and is averaging 7.91 goals per game, second-lowest in all of college lacrosse. Even worse, they’re averaging just 7.4 goals per game as an underdog.
While this total is low at 20.5, it’s likely not low enough. Bet this game to stay under 20.5 (-115 on DraftKings.)
Pick: Under 20.5
St. Joe’s (-4.5) vs. Hobart
| Hobart Odds | +340 |
| St. Joe's Odds | -525 |
| Total | 27.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
We stay in the Atlantic 10 Conference and head to a matchup between St. Joe’s and Hobart. St. Joe’s enters as a 4.5-point favorite and the total sits at 27.5. The Hawks boast the second-best team faceoff percentage thanks to faceoff man Zach Cole winning 63.8% of his draws. Hobart’s draw specialist, Adam Shea, sits at 34th in the nation and is winning 52.5% of his faceoffs.
The faceoff disparity should give the Hawks a possession advantage against a Hobart squad ranking 58th in time of possession. While Hobart’s offense has been the eighth-most efficient this year, its defense ranks third worst in efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference.
St. Joe’s offense is the 12th-most efficient and should have plenty of opportunities to create some margin. Finally, both teams play at a top-20 pace, so we should see plenty of possessions, which will help St. Joe’s build a lead and cover the 4.5-point spread.
Pick: St. Joe’s -4.5
Vermont (-1.5) vs. Bryant
| Bryant Odds | +116 |
| Vermont Odds | -142 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
We wrap my best bets for Saturday with an America East Conference matchup between Vermont and Bryant. Bryant enters as a 1.5-point underdog, but I think they should actually be favored, albeit slightly, in this game.
The Bulldogs have been underdogs just once this season and not only covered as 3.5-point underdogs against Boston University — they won outright. Bryant’s offense ranks 10th in efficiency, sixth in shooting percentage and has scored the fifth-most goals per game with an average of 15.7.
Meanwhile, Vermont has benefited heavily from the 10th-best time of possession, thanks to faceoff specialist Tommy Burke, who’s won 63.8% of his draws. Yet, this week he draws a worthy opponent in Bryant’s Nathan LaLiberte, who ranks ninth in the nation with a 62.5% win percentage.
Eliminating the Catamount’s advantage at the faceoff substantially hinders their chances of winning since they’ll have fewer offensive possessions than normal. They rank 62nd in offensive efficiency and turn the ball over on 29.7% of their possessions.
Ultimately, I think this is a great spot for Bryant to get an outright win over their America East counterparts and like betting them on the moneyline (+116 on FanDuel.)
Pick: Bryant Moneyline
