We have another full slate of NCAA lacrosse games and there are two in particular that I’m targeting this Saturday. Let’s take a look at a home favorite and home underdog that I’m backing this weekend.
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| Stony Brook vs. Albany | Saturday, 1 p.m. ET |
| Towson vs. Denver | Saturday, 2 p.m. ET |
Stony Brook vs. Albany
| Pick | Stony Brook -2.5 |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
| Time | Saturday, 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Our first game features Stony Brook visiting the University of Albany for an America East showdown. The Seawolves enter with a 5-3 record with two of their losses against ranked opponents in Rutgers and Brown and their most recent loss to a Syracuse team that has appeared in the Top 20 a few times this season. On the flipside, Albany is 1-5 with a lone win against Siena.
The Seawolves have shown they can hang with the top teams in the nation. They nearly beat a fourth-ranked Rutgers team before losing 17-16 in the final minutes and led Brown 5-3 at half, before ultimately losing 10-7.
They’ve beaten the teams they’re supposed to and hung tight with teams above their weight class. And they have an edge over Albany in almost every way.
Of the 73 teams in Division I men’s lacrosse, Albany ranks 60th in offensive efficiency, 64th in defensive efficiency and 70th in turnover rate. Furthermore, the Great Danes lack a quality win and are coming off an 18-10 beatdown by Binghamton. The Seawolves are just an overall better team and their 19th-ranked faceoff percentage should allow them to play “make it, take it” for most of the game.
I think the Seawolves have an easy time covering the 2.5-point spread and like them up to -3.5.
Pick: Stony Brook -2.5 (play to -3.5)
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Towson vs. Denver
| Pick | Denver -2.5 |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
| Time | Saturday, 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | Altitude Sports |
For our second game, we head west to Colorado where the Denver Pioneers host the Towson Tigers. Denver sits at 4-4, but is coming off a big 14-12 win over Ohio State. All four of their losses have come against ranked opponents. On the other hand, Towson is 3-5 and enters this matchup following a 14-7 loss to Duke.
After an underwhelming start to the season, 18th-ranked Denver is starting to play better even if it hasn’t equated to wins. Their offense has averaged 15.7 goals per game in their last four contests and is operating at an 11th-ranked efficiency at 35.2% according to Lacrosse Reference.
A large part of their success has also been due to Alec Stathakis, who ranks fourth among fellow faceoff specialists on Lacrosse Reference. He’s contributed to Denver’s 56.7% faceoff win rate and has won 64.1% of faceoffs against teams outside the Top 20.
The Tigers have shown some positive glimpses this season, but I think they’re a bit outmatched for this game against the Pios and see them running out of steam much like in their losses to previously ranked Johns Hopkins and 11th-ranked Duke. Their offense hasn’t been all that impressive this season and their 57th-ranked faceoff unit will struggle mightily against Denver’s Stathakis. The Pios should be able to control the possession battle, tempo and ultimately the game as a whole.
I think Denver covers the 2.5-point spread at home.
Pick: Denver -2.5
