The NCAA Men’s Lacrosse tournament concludes this weekend with two Final Four matchups on Saturday and the championship on Memorial Day.
The first game on Saturday features four-point favorite Duke against the only non-ACC school left, Penn State.
Despite narrowly beating Delaware in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, Duke removed all doubt that it was a championship contender last weekend, defeating Big Ten champion Michigan, 15-8.
This weekend the Blue Devils will face another Big Ten opponent in Penn State, which fought off a late rally by Army last weekend to punch its ticket to the Final Four in Philly.
Let’s discuss my two favorite bets for the noon matchup.
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Duke (-4) vs. Penn State
| Duke Odds | -450 |
| Penn State Odds | +340 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Duke actually opened as a 3-point favorite before becoming a 3.5-point favorite almost immediately. Then, the Blue Devils settled at -4 an hour later. They're as long as a 4.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks, but there are still some offering -4.
The total is currently 25.5 across most sportsbooks.
Despite the fact that Duke hasn't been a great team against the spread this year (5-7 ATS as a favorite), I like this matchup for the Blue Devils for a variety of reasons.
First, the few teams that have been able to stop Brennan O’Neill have done so with physical play from their top cover defenders (Notre Dame’s Chris Fake, Delaware’s Owen Grant, etc).
Unfortunately for Penn State, its top cover defender, Jack Posey, went down with an injury against Army, and while the Nittany Lions weathered the storm against Army, they’ll face a Duke team with a lot more weapons.
While I think Penn State has the offense to still put up some points against Duke, I also worry the Nittany Lions could have a significant possession disadvantage. Duke’s Jake Naso ranks sixth in faceoff percentage this season, and he’ll have a great opportunity to help the Blue Devils build a lead.
Naso should have a lot of success against Penn State’s Chase Mullins, who ranks 57th among faceoff men this season and has won less than 40% of draws during the tournament.
Penn State's defense is solid, but it just doesn't have anyone who can stop O'Neill. PSU should be able to play "make it, take it" with its faceoff advantage.
Bet Duke to win and cover the 4-point spread (-115 on DraftKings).
I also like Penn State midfielder Ethan Long to stay under his points prop of 2.5. Long shot lights out in the three games leading into the NCAA tournament and had a five-point performance for Penn State during its comeback against Princeton.
However, I don’t think he’ll be able to replicate that type of shooting success against Duke.
His odds are currently -115 on DraftKings to stay under 2.5 points, despite recording two or less points in 11 of 15 games this year. That makes his true odds closer to -275.
Bet Long to stay under 2.5 points again on Saturday.
