The NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Final Four continues with Notre Dame taking on Virginia in the Cavaliers’ third Final Four appearance in the past four seasons. Virginia enters as a slight favorite (-1.5), but let’s take a look at the two bets I like for Saturday’s second game.
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Virginia (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame
| Virginia Odds | -130 |
| Notre Dame Odds | +100 |
| Total | 27.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
There’s a great chance the winner of this game will end up winning it all on Monday. Virginia is just a 1.5-point favorite despite beating Notre Dame by five and four goals, respectively, in their two meetings earlier this season.
Despite those past results, I actually like Notre Dame to defeat Virginia in a contest I expect to be much closer than those prior meetings. Notre Dame had a lot of unforced errors and poor shooting decisions in the most recent matchup and five of of those turnovers led to transition goals for the Wahoos. They’re the only team remaining with both a top-five offense and a top-five defense. Faceoff is an obvious weakness, but I still like the Irish to advance.
However, my favorite bet in this game isn’t on the side, but on the total.
I really like this game to stay under 27.5. Virginia has been clearing high totals with ease this season, but that's because few defenses have been able to slow them down. Both of their previous meetings with Notre Dame stayed under this mark with just 25 and 20 goals scored. Notre Dame has a defense that can slow down the Cavaliers, even if it hasn't yet translated to a win.
Notre Dame will need its defense to play well once again, and its offense to control the tempo if it wants to secure the victory. Yet, even if Virginia wins, I still think this total will stay low. If Virginia wins, it probably means it was able to stifle Notre Dame's offense and that Matthew Nunes had another big day in net. While UVA likes to play fast, it knows it'll need to wear down this defense with methodical possessions and should be just as content to play at a slower pace. Regardless of which side you like to win, bet this game stays under 27.5.
I also like Connor Shellenberger to stay under his shots on goal prop of 4.5 (-120 on DraftKings).
Yes, you read that right. I like the Tewaaraton Award finalist to stay UNDER his SOG prop. Shellenberger is the leader of this offense and coming off a 10-point performance, but his shots on goal total is actually a bit high, even by his standards.
Shellenberger has taken four or less shots on goal in 12 of 15 games, making his true odds to stay under -400. Furthermore, Notre Dame has been able to disrupt Shellenberger in its past two meetings and force him to be more of a facilitator. He’s only put three shots on goal in each of his past two games against the Irish and I think he’ll stay under the 4.5 mark once again on Saturday afternoon.
Picks: Under 27.5, Virginia’s Connor Shellenberger Under 4.5 SOG
