The NCAA Division I men’s lacrosse season continues with another jam-packed Saturday. For Week 7, I’m looking at the total between ACC rivals Notre Dame and Virginia and a heavy favorite in a lopsided matchup.
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Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Virginia
| Notre Dame Odds | -150 |
| Virginia Odds | +125 |
| Total | 27.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
We start with the ACC battle between top-ranked Notre Dame and third-ranked Virginia.
Notre Dame is a 1.5-point favorite, and Virginia is as high as +125 on the moneyline following its overtime loss to Maryland last week. I think there is some value on Virginia +125, but Cavaliers goaltender Matthew Nunes’ struggles in net give me pause from making this my best bet for this game.
Instead, I’m betting this total to surpass 27.5 goals.
This matchup features the nation’s most efficient offenses, with Virginia ranking first by scoring on 40.1% of possessions. Notre Dame is right behind it, scoring on 38.7% of possessions.
The Irish will have the benefit of playing a struggling Virginia defense that's allowing opponents to score on 30.7% of their possessions.
Notre Dame will likely deploy Maryland’s blueprint for beating UVA by wearing down the Cavaliers with the country's 68th-slowest pace and relying on the second-most efficient defense to slow down the Cavaliers.
Yet, the Hoos will have a notable faceoff advantage and should still find the back of the net in bunches. Even with Notre Dame’s potentially slower pace, I think we’ll see a lot of goals in this matchup.
While the total is high, I expect these teams to put up a lot of points and recommend betting this game to go over 27.5 (-105 on Caesars).
Picks: Over 27.5
Marquette (-8) vs. St. Bonaventure Odds
| Marquette Odds | -8 (ML N/A) |
| St. Bonaventure Odds | +8 (ML N/A) |
| Total | 23.5 (-115) |
| Time | Saturday, 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FloLive |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The second game I’m looking at is between Marquette and St. Bonaventure.
Marquette is currently an 8-point favorite in this one following a massive upset over Penn State last week. St. Bonaventure enters with a record of 1-7 and has failed to score more than six goals in each of its last four games.
St. Bonaventure has one of the least-efficient offenses in the country (68th in offensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference) and plays at the sixth-slowest pace. It's also averaging just 7.9 goals per game through eight games. If you eliminate its 15-9 win over VMI, it's averaged just 6.9 goals per loss.
The Bonnies defense is also the third-least efficient in the nation and will face a Marquette offense that's shooting at the sixth-best clip of 34.6% so far this season.
While this may feel like we’re buying high on a Golden Eagles team that just had their biggest win of the season, I think this game could get out of hand for the Bonnies quickly.
I suggest betting Marquette to win by a large margin and cover the 8-point spread with ease (-110 on DraftKings.)
Pick: Marquette -8
