The NCAA Division I men’s lacrosse Week 9 slate kicks off with a few conference matchups, including an ACC showdown in Chapel Hill.
Virginia will look to get back on track against a North Carolina team that's coming off a three-game win streak against non-ACC opponents. Let’s take a look at where the betting edge lies.
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Virginia (-4) vs. North Carolina
| Virginia Odds | -600 |
| North Carolina Odds | +360 |
| Total | 28.5 |
| Time | Friday, 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
| Odds via BetMGM. | |
Virginia suffered a 16-14 loss to Duke on March 30 but enters this game as a four-point favorite against the Tar Heels.
North Carolina is coming off three massive wins in which it's won by an average margin of 14 goals. As a result, the total for this matchup was set at 28.5. While it has dropped to 27.5 at most sportsbooks, it's still at 28.5 on BetMGM.
I’m going to avoid betting a side in this matchup and instead want to take aim at a total that I think is inflated due to recent results.
This matchup features two teams with the highest-scoring offenses, but what's getting overlooked is how good the UNC defense has been this season. The Tar Heels are allowing just 8.5 goals per game (third-best in the nation) and are the most efficient defense in the country, allowing goals on just 17.6% of possessions, according to Lacrosse Reference.
I think Collin Krieg and UNC's defense will be able to cause some trouble for the Cavaliers offense despite the Hoos potentially owning a possession advantage.
Now, Virginia loves to play fast and can certainly go on scoring runs, but I think we’ll see it slow the tempo down a bit because it'll have a major advantage at the faceoff stripe and will look to wear down this North Carolina defense with long, drawn-out possessions rather than get into a run-and-gun game as it did with Duke and Maryland.
While Matthew Nunes has been shaky in net this season, he’s made 14 saves in back-to-back games and should see fewer shots given Virginia’s expected possession advantage.
The final factor that makes me like the under is the weather in Chapel Hill. It’s supposed to be cold and rainy all day long, which should slow the game down and benefit both defenses. Bet this total to stay under 28.5 (-120 on BetMGM).
Pick: Under 28.5
