The NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Tournament continues on Saturday afternoon with top-seeded Duke taking on arguably the hottest team in the NCAA Tournament in Michigan.
Duke enters as 3-point favorites after narrowly escaping with a win over Delaware in the opening round. Meanwhile, Michigan is on a five-game win streak and fresh off an overtime victory over Cornell. Let’s take a look at my two favorite bets for the second Saturday game.
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Duke (-3) vs. Michigan
| Duke Odds | -340 |
| Michigan Odds | +240 |
| Total | 28.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
While I think Duke will advance, it's just 5-7 against the spread as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Michigan has gone 7-0-1 against the spread in its last eight games.
While the Wolverines have beaten teams thanks to their high-powered midfield and dynamic faceoff duo, Duke has the deep roster and third-best faceoff specialist this season in Jake Naso to counter. So, I’m staying away from the spread in this game and instead targeting the total.
The total for this game opened as high as 29.5 and has since settled at 28.5 at most sportsbooks. While Michigan and Duke are both extremely efficient on offense, this total is too high for this matchup.
Duke ranks 49th in pace, while Michigan is even slower at 55th, according to Lacrosse Reference. Additionally, only five of Michigan’s 16 games have surpassed 28.5 goals. Duke, meanwhile, has gone over this mark in just four of its 16 games.
While both teams certainly have strong offenses, I foresee this game being played at a methodical pace by both teams and think it will likely feature many drawn-out possessions.
Michigan saw how Delaware drew Duke into a slow-paced game with long possessions and will try to replicate that. Meanwhile, Duke’s strategy may be similar in an effort to keep the ball away from the Wolverines offense as much as possible. I like betting this game to go under 28.5 (-110 at Caesars).
I'm also targeting a player prop in this game. Dyson Williams is one of Duke’s top goal-scorers but doesn’t add much in the way of assists. His points prop is set at 4.5, which is just too high, even for a player of Williams’ caliber.
He’s stayed under 4.5 points in 13 of his 16 games this season. That’s an implied probability of 81.25%. So, while I think Williams will certainly find the back of the net at some point in this game, I trust this Michigan defense to hold him to four or fewer points.
While it’s juiced at -220 at DraftKings, there's still a ton of value left in betting Williams to go under 4.5 points.
Picks: Under 28.5 · Dyson Williams Under 4.5 Points
