The NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Tournament continues with four quarterfinal matchups this weekend. Once again, the Virginia Cavaliers kick things off on Saturday with a matchup against Georgetown. This weekend also marks the first time a sportsbook is offering points props for players. Let’s take a look at the four bets I like for Saturday’s first matchup.
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Virginia (-3.5) vs. Georgetown
| Virginia Odds | -425 |
| Georgetown Odds | +285 |
| Total | 29.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Virginia makes its fourth straight trip to the quarterfinals and gets to face the team it beat 14-3 just two seasons ago. Virginia is once again favored — this time by 3.5 points — but this Hoyas team is much different than the one it faced two seasons ago. No other game has seen more line movement than this one. The spread opened at 3 on DraftKings and then bet365 posted a 2.5 before it settled in at 3.5. The total was as high as 30.5 on FanDuel and as low as 27.5 on bet365 before moving to the general consensus of 29.5 at most sportsbooks.
I was able to grab the 2.5-point spread before it moved and while I still like Virginia to cover the 3.5 points, I’d rather bet the first half spread of -2.5 (+105 on DraftKings) for a variety of reasons.
First, despite Georgetown looking impressive during its 13-game win streak, Virginia is still the better team and a big jump up in weight class compared to most of the Hoyas’ Big East opponents. Georgetown is just 7-9 against the spread this season, though it has only been an underdog twice (1-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Virginia is 10-3 against the spread as a favorite.
Virginia has led at halftime in 11 of its 13 games as a favorite — the only exceptions coming against top-seeded Duke. Furthermore, they’ve led by three or more goals in nine of those 13 games and have averaged a 4.3-goal lead at halftime during those contests.
So, I like betting the Cavaliers to be cover the 2.5-point halftime spread. Virginia has a tendency to take its foot off the gas in the second half, so this bet alleviates those concerns. That being said, I still expect this to be a high-scoring affair.
Both teams are coming off fairly high-scoring affairs. Despite a deluge of rain that created puddles on the field, the Virginia-Richmond game still saw 25 goals scored. Meanwhile, Georgetown edged Yale in a shootout that saw a whopping 36 goals scored. While the total is high at 29.5, it is high for a reason.
Virginia has gone over this mark in nine of its 15 games and loves to push the tempo. Georgetown has gone over this mark in just five of its 16 games, but has averaged 16.2 goals per game since its 13-game win streak began. Virginia ranks first in offensive efficiency and shooting percentage, according to Lacrosse Reference, but its defense is just 43rd in efficiency. Georgetown ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and seventh in shooting percentage. The Hoyas defense is also middle of the pack, ranking 29th in efficiency. I expect both offenses to deliver in this game and like betting this total to go over 29.5 (-110 on Caesars).
Finally, I also have my sights set on two player props — one for each team. Georgetown’s defense will undoubtedly be game planning to stop Virginia’s trio of Connor Shellenberger, Xander Dickson and Payton Cormier. While those three will still find ways to put up points, the attention they receive could open up opportunities for midfielder Thomas McConvey. McConvey’s points prop is 3.5 (+110) on DraftKings. Not only is this a favorable spot to bet McConvey, but he’s surpassed this number in eight of 15 games, making his true odds closer to -150. Bet McConvey to be a big factor in this game and go over 3.5 points.
On the flipside, Georgetown middie Nicky Solomon also has a points prop of 3.5 (-115) on DraftKings. While Solomon is a threat to score when the ball is in his stick, he’s only surpassed 3.5 points in four of 16 games this season. He’ll have to contend with a physical Virginia defense and may not get many opportunities to go over this number. Bet Solomon to stay under 3.5 points.
Picks: Virginia 1st Half -2.5, Over 29.5, Thomas McConvey Over 3.5 Points, Nicky Solomon Under 3.5 Points
