Only a couple of weeks remain before college lacrosse conference tournaments start, and there are dozens of pivotal matchups throughout the weekend. I’m targeting three conference matchups Saturday, betting a favorite on the spread and two totals.
No. 11 Penn State vs. Michigan
| Penn State (-3.5) | Moneyline: -420 |
| Michigan (+3.5) | Moneyline: +310 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten+ |
Odds via FanDuel
The first conference matchup I’m betting features two Big Ten teams desperate for a win. Penn State and Michigan are both 1-2 in conference play and another loss would put a first-round bye in the Big Ten tournament out of reach. Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite at home with both teams coming off losses. I think the spread is about right, but I am targeting the total of 24.5.
Penn State’s offense is the seventh-most efficient during competitive situations, featuring an adjusted offensive efficiency of 36.7%. Yet, they play at the fourth-slowest pace in Division I, according to Lacrosse Reference. Michigan plays a bit faster, ranking 36th slowest, but is also less efficient at 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
On the defensive end, Penn State is the fourth-most efficient defense during competitive situations. While the Wolverines are just 30th in that same category, they edge the Nittany Lions at faceoff and should enjoy a possession advantage that could limit the impact of Penn State’s high-powered offense.
Ultimately, I’m expecting another low-scoring Big Ten affair. Six of Penn State’s last eight games have stayed under 25 goals, including all three of their Big Ten matchups. Five of Michigan’s last seven games have also stayed under this mark and the Wolverines’ faceoff advantage should be able to prevent Penn State from going on big scoring sprees.
Bet this game to stay under 24.5 goals at -105 on FanDuel.
Pick: Under 24.5
No. 12 Army vs. Navy
| Army (-4.5) Odds | -675 |
| Navy (+4.5) Odds | +410 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The annual Army-Navy game takes the spotlight this weekend in what should be another competitive matchup. Army is a 4.5-point favorite at home and the total is 22.5 at most places. Neither the Cadets or Midshipmen have been entirely consistent this season, and I expect an unconventional outcome when it comes to the total.
Service academy Unders have not just been applicable to college football, but college lacrosse as well, particularly in this matchup. Yet, this year’s total is too low given the makeup of these two current teams and I’m betting this game to go over 22.5 goals.
Army’s 46th-ranked defense has been struggling, even after making a change at goaltender. Sean Byrne has appeared to be a slight upgrade, but the Black Knights still give up far too many quality chances on the doorstep. I think the Navy offense, featuring players like Xavier Arline and Henry Tolker, will be able to find the holes in the Army defense.
Navy’s defense has played better, ranking 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference. Yet, Army’s offense is top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and plays fast, ranking fourth in pace. Navy is not far behind in pace of play, ranking seventh fastest.
Finally, one of Army’s strengths has been its seventh-ranked adjusted faceoff percentage, but that won’t be as strong of an edge against Navy’s 15th-ranked faceoff unit. This game should be very back and forth and that plays to a high-scoring game given the matchups on both ends of the field.
Pick: Over 22.5
High Point vs. No. 19 Richmond
| High Point (+3.5) Odds | +370 |
| Richmond (-3.5) Odds | -520 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
Saturday night features a pivotal Atlantic 10 matchup featuring High Point hosting Richmond. Richmond is as low as a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 25.5.
High Point has a flashy upset win over UNC on its resume, but has been largely unimpressive against ranked teams, losing to Duke, Syracuse, Georgetown and St. Joe’s by an average margin of eight goals. Richmond is much closer to its ranked counterparts than to North Carolina.
The Spiders' defense is elite, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference. While High Point’s 22nd-ranked offense has been very efficient, it will have a tough time against this defense. Richmond ranks even higher in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency at 13th and should be able to build and maintain a lead against the Panthers’ 57th-ranked defense.
The Spiders are also 5-2 against the spread as a favorite, with their two ATS losses falling a point and half point short, respectively. They’ve also covered all four spreads of -7.5 or fewer and their average margin of victory is 12.3 goals.
Bet Richmond -3.5 at -122 on FanDuel.
Pick: Richmond -3.5
