Thursday and Friday features the semifinals for all 10 college lacrosse conference tournaments. I’m targeting four games in particular, with two picks on the spread and a pair of totals.
Let’s take a look at my four NCAA lacrosse best bets for the upcoming slate of semifinal matchups.
Sacred Heart vs. Siena
| Sacred Heart (-4) | Moneyline (-615) |
| Siena (+4) | Moneyline (+380) |
| Total | 24 |
| Time | Thursday · 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Top-seeded Sacred Heart enters their MAAC semifinal matchup against Siena after going 9-0 in the conference. Sacred Heart is a 4-point favorite despite defeating Siena in their regular season matchup, 18-8. The score was even more lopsided at 18-6 before Siena scored two late goals in the final three minutes. I expect another big win by the Pioneers on Thursday.
Sacred Heart ranks 23rd and 24th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency respectively on Lacrosse Reference. Siena ranks 43rd and 47th in those respective metrics. The Pioneers also have the 22nd-best adjusted faceoff percentage compared to Siena's 53rd-ranked unit and out-possessed the Saints 41 to 36 in their last meeting.
While these teams last faced on March 9, the Pioneers have shown no signs of slowing down, outscoring MAAC opponents by more than seven goals per game. Bet Sacred Heart -4 at -130 on DraftKings.
Pick: Sacred Heart -4 (-130)
Vermont vs. UMBC
| Vermont (-1.5) | Moneyline (-200) |
| UMBC (+1.5) | Moneyline (+145) |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Thursday · 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Vermont takes on UMBC for the second time in five days. Vermont is a slight favorite again after a 15-13 win on Saturday and the total is 24.5.
While these teams combined for 28 goals this past weekend, I expect better performances from both defenses in the rematch. Both teams efficiency on offense greatly exceeded their season average and UMBC's shots on goal percentage also saw a significant uptick, suggesting the offensive production we saw on Saturday may not be easily replicated. UMBC goalie Jayson Tingue also tied his season-low save total with just eight and second-lowest save percentage at 34.8%.
Despite both offenses' highly efficient performances, their tempo remained slower and consistent with their season averages. Both teams took long drawn-out possessions with many goals coming late in the shot clock. Vermont ranks fifth-slowest in pace during competitive situations and UMBC isn't much faster, ranking 19th-slowest according to Lacrosse Reference. I expect to see a similar pace with far less efficient results.
While it's moved from 25.5, I still think there's value in betting this game to stay under 24.5 at -115 on BetMGM or DraftKings.
Pick: Under 24.5 (-115)
No. 10 Georgetown vs. Providence
| Georgetown (-6.5) | Moneyline (-2200) |
| Providence (+6.5) | Moneyline (+980) |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Thursday · 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
Odds via FanDuel
Georgetown is a 6.5-point favorite against Providence in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. Earlier this season, the Hoyas defeated the Friars, 15-10. Rather than bet Georgetown to cover a big spread, there's value in betting this total to stay under 24.5.
Providence got off to a quick 5-2 lead when these teams played on March 30. Georgetown responded with a nine-goal run in the second quarter, taking an 11-5 lead into halftime. The Hoyas are efficient on offense, but this game was unusually high-scoring by their standards. Nine of Georgetown's 13 games have stayed under 25 goals, with an average total landing at 21.8 this season.
Not only do the Hoyas rank 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency on Lacrosse Reference., their offense also plays at the slowest pace in all of Division I. Providence plays faster, but still ranks on the slower side, at 48th of the 76 teams.
Furthermore, when these teams last played, Georgetown allowed an uncharacteristic amount of goals per possession and posted an adjusted defensive efficiency of 32.5% — their worst since their disastrous season-opener against Loyola. They've only had a game with an adjusted defensive efficiency over 30% three times this season and I expect a better showing on Thursday.
Bet this game to stay under 24.5 at -110 on BetMGM or FanDuel.
Pick: Under 24.5 (-110)
No. 12 Princeton vs. No. 13 Yale
| Princeton (+1.5) | Moneyline (+114) |
| Yale (-1.5) | Moneyline (-145) |
| Total | 26.5 |
| Time | Friday · 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Princeton takes on Yale for the second time in less than a week following their 15-8 blowout of the Bulldogs. However, the Tigers are once again slight underdogs, as high as +114 on the moneyline. These teams would be evenly matched at even strength, but I have concerns about Yale's ability to avoid another lopsided loss.
Yale profiles as a typical Andy Shay team: a high-powered offense that is fueled by a substantial faceoff advantage that limits the negative impact of a below average defense. Led by the Ivy League's all-time leader in points Matt Brandau, Yale's offense has outscored opponents thanks to their 8th-ranked adjusted efficiency during competitive situations. They've enjoyed the ability to go in scoring runs thanks to the faceoff duo of Nicholas Ramsey and Machado Rodriguez.
Yet, Rodriguez hasn't suited up in three straight games and Ramsey left Saturday's game early due to injury. Yale would finish 6-for-27 at the faceoff dot and suffer a possession disadvantage of -14.
Even if Ramsey or Rodriguez are able to suit up, I still like Princeton's chance at a second straight victory. The Tigers boast an offense that ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and was able to pick apart a Yale defense that ranks 71st of 76 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations according toLacrosse Reference.
Meanwhile, Princeton's defense ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency and held Yale to their lowest goal total of the season. Bet Princeton to win outright on Friday at +114 on DraftKings.
Pick: Princeton ML (+114)
