Check out college lacrosse Week 7 best bets with our expert picks and predictions for Saturday, March 23.
Week 7 in college lacrosse continues with many teams starting conference play this weekend. I already gave out two lookahead bets on Wednesday and have four more bets that I’m adding to Saturday’s card.
Let’s take a look at the four conference matchups I’m betting this weekend.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Dartmouth vs. No. 13 Penn
| Dartmouth (+7) | Moneyline: +1000 |
| Penn (-7) | Moneyline: -2800 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The University of Pennsylvania has played in many low-scoring affairs this season, but once again the sportsbooks continue to post totals that are a tad too high for the eighth-most efficient defense in Division I. At 23.5, there’s value in betting Penn’s Ivy League battle with Dartmouth to stay under this total.
Penn’s defense has allowed an average of just 10 goals per game through eight contests, and its totals have averaged less than 21 goals, with just one game going over 22 – their 14-12 win over Duke. The Quakers’ offense is actually fairly efficient but plays at the 69th slowest pace of 76 teams. Low-scoring games are in Penn’s DNA.
Yet, it takes two to tango, and this bet relies on Dartmouth’s defense playing well and their offense underperforming. The Big Green’s offense ranks 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency in competitive situations and plays at the 55th-slowest pace, according to Lacrosse Reference. Yet, their defense has been efficient in competitive gameplay, ranking 23rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.
This Ivy League matchup has all the makings for a low-scoring contest. Bet the Under 23.5 at -115 on BetMGM.
Pick: Under 23.5
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Wagner
| Mount St. Mary's (-3.5) | Moneyline: -500 |
| Wagner (+3.5) | Moneyline: +325 |
| Total | 21.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Mount St. Mary’s hosts Wagner, and the Mountaineers are 3.5-point favorites. Mount St. Mary’s is seeking its first win of the season, and I’m not sure it comes against the Seahawks on Saturday.
Last year, Mount St. Mary’s won 10-7, but Wagner still kept the final score within four goals despite turning the ball over on more than half of its possessions.
This season, these teams are a lot more comparable than the spread indicates. Mount St. Mary’s ranks 71st and 69th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, while Wagner sits at 68th and 75th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to Lacrosse Reference. At faceoff, Wagner’s 65th-ranked unit edges the Mount’s 73rd-ranked group.
This game should be essentially a coin flip, but we have the luxury of getting to bet Wagner +3.5. Considering this, I think it’s also worth betting a half unit on the team's moneyline of +325, as well.
Picks: Wagner +3.5 (1 unit) & Wagner ML (0.5 unit)
Marist vs. Quinnipiac
| Marist (+1.5) | Moneyline: +100 |
| Quinnipiac (-1.5) | Moneyline: -130 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Brace yourself for another MAAC matchup, with this one featuring Quinnipiac and Marist. The Bobcats currently sit 6-0 but are just 1.5-point favorites against a 4-3 Marist.
With Army losing to Boston on Friday night, Quinnipiac became the only Division I team with an undefeated record. While their schedule hasn’t quite been a gauntlet, there’s value in betting them as a 1.5-point favorite.
The Bobcats rank 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency during competitive situations according to Lacrosse Reference. Marist’s 36th-efficient offense is comparable, but the team's defense ranks 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Red Foxes edge the Bobcats slightly in adjusted faceoff percentage, but Quinnipiac has overcome three possessions disadvantages this season in wins with an average margin of victory of more than five goals.
When looking at common opponents, Marist’s 8-9 loss to Wagner and 20-16 win over Canisius pale in comparison to Quinnipiac’s 14-8 win against Wagner and 14-7 win over Canisius. Ultimately, this spread should be a point or two higher.
Bet Quinnipiac -1.5 at +105 on BetMGM or DraftKings.
Pick: Quinnipiac -1.5
No. 19 Michigan vs. No. 7 Maryland
| Michigan (+2.5) | +235 |
| Maryland (-2.5) | -300 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Odds via FanDuel
Saturday evening features a Big Ten matchup featuring Michigan and Maryland. The Terps are 2.5-point road favorites despite losing to Michigan outright twice last season, but the total of 24.5 is what I’m betting in this contest.
Maryland’s defense currently ranks 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations, and Michigan isn’t far behind at 22nd, according to Lacrosse Reference. While the Wolverines also rank 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency, they play at the 51st slowest pace during competitive situations. The Terps’ 18th-ranked offense based on those same parameters is even slower at the 62nd-slowest pace.
Only two of Maryland’s seven games have gone over this mark, with their totals averaging 22.43 goals per game. Michigan has played in more games with higher totals, but if you exclude their three games against offenses ranking in the top five in offensive efficiency (Virginia, Harvard and Notre Dame), their defense has held opponents to an average of 8.6 goals per game.
Neither team will have a significant faceoff advantage, which should lead to both teams valuing their possessions and keeping the tempo slow. Bet this game to stay under 24.5 at -104 on FanDuel.
Pick: Under 24.5
