College lacrosse week 9 continues with 32 games between Saturday and Sunday. I have best bets in four of those games. Let’s take a look at the two sides and two totals I’m targeting this weekend.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
No. 6 Maryland vs. Ohio State
| Maryland (-4.5) | Moneyline: -650 |
| Ohio State (+4.5) | Moneyline: +400 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten+ |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Maryland enters their game against Ohio State fresh off a comeback win over Penn State as an underdog. The 'Terps opened as 5-point favorites and are still as high as -4.5 on BetMGM.
Yet, I expect the Buckeyes to be able to keep it close and cover this spread.
These two teams are very similar on paper. Both have an adjusted defensive efficiency rating ranking in the top 10, with Ohio State at 10th and Maryland at eighth during competitive situations (excluding garbage time). Their offenses are also similar in adjusted offensive efficiency as well with the Buckeyes ranking 30th and 'Terps ranking 25th during competitive play according to Lacrosse Reference.
Face off success has also been similar, with a Tommy Burke-led Ohio State unit posting an adjusted face off percentage of 16th excluding garbage time while the Luke Wierman-led Maryland group ranking 11th.
Ohio State's defense has played well against the other ranked teams they've faced, holding those five opponents (Virginia, Cornell, Notre Dame, Denver, Penn State) to an average of 12.6 goals. Every one of those offenses rank ahead of Maryland and in the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Furthermore, Ohio State is 3-2-1 against the spread as an underdog and has covered in both games as an underdog of more than 3. Meanwhile, Maryland is just 2-3 against the spread as a favorite and 0-2 as a favorite of greater than 4.
This spread is severely underrating Ohio State and I expect we'll see a close, low-scoring game with the Buckeyes in a position to potentially win outright entering the 4th quarter.
Bet Ohio State +4.5 at -120 on BetMGM.
Pick: Ohio State +4.5 (-120)
No. 2 Virginia vs. North Carolina
| Virginia (-4.5) Odds | -750 |
| North Carolina (+4.5) Odds | +490 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via FanDuel
Virginia hosts North Carolina on Saturday in an ACC showdown featuring two fast-paced offenses. The total is set as low as 25.5 at FanDuel, but that still isn't high enough for these two teams.
Both teams rank in the top 4 in pace with UNC's average first shot coming the third earliest and Virginia right behind at fourth according to Lacrosse Reference. Now, the Tar Heels offense isn't particularly efficient, ranking 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency during competitive situations, but the Cavaliers rank fourth in that same category according to Lacrosse Reference.
Defensively, Virginia and North Carolina rank 11th and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but I expect the pace and efficiency of their offenses to propel this game over the total of 25.5.
Pick: Over 25.5 (-115)
Air Force vs. Bellarmine
| Air Force (-1.5) Odds | -140 |
| Bellarmine (+1.5) Odds | +110 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Air Force and Bellarmine square off in an ASUN matchup on Saturday afternoon. The total is 23.5 and, given these teams' strengths on defense, that isn't low enough.
Both teams rank high in adjusted defensive efficiency with Bellarmine ranking 19th and Air Force at 26th. The same can't be said about their offenses that are 55th and 50th respectively in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Lacrosse Reference.
Furthermore, the Falcons' offense plays at the 62nd-slowest pace and only two of their nine games have surpassed 23.5 goals. When these teams met last season, only 21 goals were scored despite both teams having moderate offensive success, each scoring on more than 30% of their possessions. Don't expect as much offensive success this season and bet this total to stay under 23.5 at -115 on BetMGM or DraftKings.
Pick: Under 23.5
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Marist
| Mount St. Mary's (+3.5) Odds | +300 |
| Marist (-3.5) Odds | -425 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Mount St. Mary's hosts Marist in a Saturday evening MAAC meeting. The Red Foxes are 3.5-point road favorites and should be able to cover this mark against a weak Mountaineers team.
Mount St. Mary's ranks bottom-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and face off percentage per Lacrosse Reference. The Mount has just one win this season against an equally bad Wagner team.
Meanwhile, Marist is above average in adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking 35th of 76 Division I teams. Their defense ranks 53rd, but their expected possession advantage due to a large adjusted face off percentage disparity should allow the Red Foxes to build and maintain a lead throughout this game.
Pick: Marist -3.5 (-110)
