NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Betting Odds & Picks: Best Bets for College Lacrosse Week 1

Last weekend was the start of the men’s college lacrosse season, but this week is officially considered “Week 1” in NCAA Lacrosse. I have bets in six games, including five matchups featuring a team in the top 20. Let’s take a look at which three player props, two sides and one total I’m betting on Saturday.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Georgetown vs. No. 9 Johns Hopkins

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Johns Hopkins bounced back from its late-game collapse against Denver in the season opener by beating Towson 13-5 on Tuesday. Johns Hopkins enters its third game of the season as a 1.5-point favorite against Georgetown, who is coming off an embarrassing 18-10 loss. 

The margin Georgetown lost by was surprising, but the loss itself wasn’t as big of a shock considering the amount of players the Hoyas lost on both sides of the ball this offseason. The Hoyas defense not only allowed 18 goals, but gave up goals on more than half of their defensive possessions (51.7%). A handful of goals were scored off broken plays and we can expect some positive regression, but the Hoyas defense should struggle against a Johns Hopkins offense that is scoring on 34.6% of its possessions this season and averaged 35% efficiency last year, according to Lacrosse Reference.

Georgetown’s lone bright spot was at the faceoff, where it won 60%. However, it won’t have as much success against Johns Hopkins faceoff specialist Logan Callahan. Furthermore, the Johns Hopkins defense has looked strong, despite its late-game collapse against Denver.

The line for this game isn't right and should be closer to their season opener against Denver. Bet Johns Hopkins -1.5 at -125 on Caesars or DraftKings.

Pick: Johns Hopkins -1.5

No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 12 Loyola (Md)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Loyola travels to College Park to face Maryland. The Terps are between 2.5 and 3.5-point favorites, depending on the sportsbook, following their one-goal overtime win over Richmond. Had Loyola not upset Georgetown and Maryland covered against Richmond, this spread would be much larger.

Loyola’s 18-10 win as a 4.5-point underdog against Georgetown was impressive, but it benefited greatly from goals scored off broken plays and second-chance opportunities. Loyola's 51.7% offensive efficiency shouldn't be expected against a Terps defense that held Richmond to a commendable 22.2% (eighth-best in Division I), according to Lacrosse Reference. Maryland’s offense didn’t look its best last week, but still managed to score on 29.3% of its possessions against a solid Richmond defense.

Additionally, the Terps should benefit from extra possessions from faceoff specialist Luke Wierman, who started the season at 58.62% and dominated Loyola last year (81.18%). Loyola still managed to beat Maryland 12-7 last year, but some key Loyola defensive players have since graduated. Expect Maryland to get its revenge this weekend.

Pick: Maryland -2.5

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No. 13 Penn State vs. Villanova

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Penn State takes on Villanova after a deflating one-goal loss to Colgate that ended with a game-winning goal in the final seconds off a failed Penn State clear. Colgate’s defense played well, but the Nittany Lions got away from what made them successful last year,

Star attackman TJ Malone is the quarterback of the Penn State offense and finished with eight points in last week’s losing effort. Yet, he had just three shots and only one of them — his lone goal of the game — was on net.  Penn State will need Malone to attack the cage more than he did last weekend and this is a good spot to bet on him to do so.

Malone’s shots on goal prop is 4.5, a mark he's cleared in 15 of his past 28 games, including in nine of 16 games last year. Furthermore, 70.48% of Malone's shots end up on goal. Over 4.5 is -130 on DraftKings and that’s a fair price to bet Malone to attack the cage and surpass his SOG prop on Saturday.

Pick: TJ Malone Over 4.5 SOG

Navy vs Hofstra

Odds via FanDuel

Both Navy and Hofstra are coming off massive wins to start the season. Navy beat Mount St. Mary’s, 19-6, and Hofstra defeated Wagner, 21-9. Earlier this week, I gave out Navy -2.5, but that has since moved to -3.5. I still like Navy to cover, but I think the better angle is to now bet the total.

Both teams finished with over 41% efficiency in their first game and although they faced weak defenses, I still think it was a testament to their offensive improvement. Both offenses struggled last season, but are expected to be better. Navy in particular had most of their top players return and hired three-time pro lacrosse champion-winning coach Dave Cottle as their offensive coordinator.

Another telling sign is the pace these teams played at to open the season. Both teams took an average of less than 29 seconds to take their first shot and averaged shots per possession numbers in the top 10 so far this year. Additionally, when these teams met last year, the game ended with 25 goals scored.

The total is 22.5 and that’s just too low for these squads. Bet this game to go over that mark at -132 on FanDuel.

Pick: Over 22.5

No. 7 Denver vs. Air Force

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Johns Hopkins was four minutes away from a convincing victory before Denver attackman JJ Sillstrop scored the Pioneers’ final three goals in regulation and the eventual game winner in overtime. Sillstrop is Denver’s go-to player for a reason, but the sportsbooks overvalued his late game heroics a bit too much following last weekend’s game.

Sillstrop’s shots on goal prop is 5.5 — a number he’s cleared in only four of his past 16 games. He cleared this mark against Hopkins, but had three goals in the final four minutes and one in overtime. Had his long-range shot in the final seconds of regulation missed the mark, he’d have finished with only four shots on goal to start the season and we wouldn’t have an opportunity to fade him this week.

Now, the Hopkins defense may seem to be a lot better than Air Force's on paper, but the Falcons ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency last season and managed to hold a high-powered Marquette team to just 12 goals last week. The Falcons also allowed the eighth fewest shots per possession last year and held Marquette to just 27 total shots on goal in their season opener.

Sillstrop will be a factor in this game, but this number is just too high.

Pick: JJ Sillstrop Under 5.5 SOG

No. 2 Duke vs. High Point

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Duke takes on High Point this week and is a 9.5-point favorite at home. High Point has upset Duke in the past, but the Blue Devils have one of the best rosters in the country.

Brennan O’Neill won lacrosse’s version of the Heisman — the Tewaaraton Award — last year and picked up where he left off with a seven-point performance in his season debut. Still, he only managed to record five shots on goal and his SOG prop is 6.5 this week.

O’Neill recorded seven or more shots on goal in just five of 20 games last year and has stayed under this mark in 72% of his career games. He’s also never had more than six shots on goal against High Point. Duke's roster is also loaded with talent, which takes pressure off O’Neill as a goal-scorer. Also, if this game gets out of hand early, Duke could potentially rest O’Neill in anticipation of its upcoming game with St. Joe’s.

O’Neill will get his goals, but expecting him to hit the cage seven or more times is less likely to happen than it may seem. Bet O’Neill to stay Under 6.5 shots on goal.

Pick: Brennan O’Neill Under 6.5 SOG