College lacrosse Week 12 is almost here and there are dozens of pivotal conference matchups. Most teams have their final regular-season game this weekend, though conferences like the Big Ten begin their conference tournaments this weekend. Let’s take a look at my four best bets for Friday and Saturday.
Villanova vs. No. 11 Georgetown
| Villanova (+4.5) | Moneyline (+360) |
| Georgetown (-4.5) | Moneyline (-550) |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FloTV |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
We start in the Big East with a matchup between Georgetown and Villanova. The Hoyas are 4.5-point road favorites, but I’d rather target the total, which is as high as 23.5 on BetMGM.
I expect a slow, grind-it-out game between these Big East rivals. Both defenses rank in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency as Georgetown ranks 19th and Villanova is close behind at 22nd, according to Lacrosse Reference. The faceoff battle should also be fairly even, which should lead to long, drawn-out possessions by both teams.
Despite boasting the ninth-most efficient offense, the Hoyas play at the second-slowest pace in Division I. While the Wildcats aren’t quite as slow, ranking 16th slowest of 76 teams, they are far less efficient and rank 53rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Last season, this meeting saw just 20 total goals, despite Georgetown having a faster and more efficient offense than it currently does. I expect another low-scoring affair on Friday night.
Bet this game to stay Under 23.5 at -120 on BetMGM.
Pick: Under 23.5
Michigan vs. Ohio State
| Michigan (+1.5) | Moneyline (-115) |
| Ohio State (-1.5) | Moneyline (-115) |
| Total | 23 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The start of the Big Ten tournament features a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan. The Wolverines secured a 13-12 win over their rivals a week ago, but I don’t think this rematch will feature as many goals.
Michigan led Ohio State 13-8 with five minutes left before the Buckeyes started a late rally. In fact, that game was still on pace to stay under 23, until Ohio State rattled off three goals in the final two minutes.
Furthermore, that meeting featured an irregularly high amount of goals scored on broken plays. In addition to two power play goals, Michigan scored a pair of goals on broken plays. The Buckeyes had even more unsettled goals, scoring six on broken plays or fast breaks. When settled, both offenses slowed the tempo with long possessions.
Ohio State’s defense is still one of the best in the nation and ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference. The Wolverines have been considerably worse on defense (41st), but actually matched up really well with the Buckeyes in settled situations last weekend. This game should play out similar to last week, but I don’t expect nearly as many goals.
Bet this game to stay Under 23 at -120 on DraftKings.
Pick: Under 23
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 1 Notre Dame
| Virginia (+1.5) | Moneyline (+155) |
| Notre Dame (-1.5) | Moneyline (-210) |
| Total | 27.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Notre Dame sits atop both the media poll rankings and ACC standings at 3-0 in conference play. Meanwhile, Virginia is desperate for a win in order to secure its spot in the ACC Tournament next week. The Irish are as short as 1.5-point favorites at home. The most recent meeting between these teams was in the 2023 Final Four — a game Notre Dame won by one goal. I expect Notre Dame to secure another victory and cover the spread against the Cavaliers on Saturday.
Notre Dame’s offense should be able to have similar success to what Syracuse experienced last week against UVA. The Cavaliers often looked lost on defense, getting caught ball watching and giving up open looks around the crease. Even when they had solid defensive possessions, they were let down by poor goaltending from Matthew Nunes. Yes, Nunes made some big saves late in the game, but he’s been shaky in two straight. Against Duke, he allowed seven goals and failed to record a save before getting pulled. Last week, he allowed 15 goals before recording a save and although he ended up finishing with 15 saves against Syracuse, I think there’s a good chance he could get lit up again here.
Notre Dame ranks first in adjusted offensive efficiency (44%), according to Lacrosse Reference. The Cavaliers' defense has allowed 18 goals in back-to-back games and has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 31.1% against currently ranked opponents — that wouldn’t even crack the top 30.
The Irish's defense hasn’t been as dominant this season, but is still 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ll have their hands full against Virginia’s sixth-most efficient offense, but I trust Notre Dame's defense and faceoff unit to edge out Virginia enough to build — and maintain — a multi-goal lead.
Bet Notre Dame -1.5 at -125 on BetMGM.
Pick: Notre Dame -1.5
No. 14 Richmond vs. No. 16 St. Joe’s
| Richmond (-2.5) | Moneyline (-300) |
| St. Joe's (+2.5) | Moneyline (+215) |
| Total | 24 |
| Time | Saturday · 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Richmond and St. Joe’s face off in a game that will determine the top-seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament. Richmond opened as a 3-point home favorite before moving to -2.5. Despite the shorter number, I'm still backing St. Joe's
I’ve been vocal about how elite Richmond's defense is and they still rank first in adjusted defensive efficiency on Lacrosse Reference. Yet, St. Joe’s defense has also played well lately, particularly since naming Tommy Gross their starter. The Hawks are 9-0 with him in net and their defense has an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 24.7% during that span. They’d rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency if you only accounted for the games in which Gross started.
St. Joe’s offense has also been responsible for its recent win streak and it ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency — just one spot behind Richmond. Where the Hawks edge the Spiders is at the faceoff, with St. Joe’s facing off at 50.9%. Richmond is facing off at just 44.7% and could experience its third straight game with a possession disadvantage.
Ultimately, I think St. Joe’s will be able to keep this game close throughout and potentially even win outright. Bet St. Joe’s to cover the 2.5-point spread at -120 on DraftKings.
Pick: St. Joe’s +2.5
