NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Betting Odds & Picks: Best Bets for College Lacrosse Week 4

College lacrosse continues with another jam-packed weekend of games. Last week we went 7-0 for +6.875 units and on Friday night we won our lone bet to improve to 25-5 for 19.78 units. This weekend, I have best bets in five games. Let’s dive into my picks for Week 4.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

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Colgate vs. Loyola (Md)

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Colgate takes on Loyola in the first Patriot League game of the season for both teams. Coming off a tough opening schedule and overtime win against Towson, Loyola enters this game as high as a 2-point favorite. While I think Colgate has a potential upset in them, I’d rather target the total of 23.5.

Loyola pulled off a gutsy win over Towson, but the issues that plagued them during their three-game losing streak were still there. The Greyhounds were sloppy on offense, still had struggles facing off and most notably were terrible clearing the ball. The lone bright spot: the Luke Staudt-led defense.

Loyola’s defense currently ranks 17th, posting a 25.5% adjusted deficiency during competitive situations (excluding garbage time) according to Lacrosse Reference. Staudt’s play in net has been a big part of why Loyola’s defense has played so well and the team’s adjusted save percentage of 62.1% ranks 10th in the nation. Only one of Loyola’s games have gone over this mark and it was their game against Georgetown, when the Greyhound offense scored on an anomalous 52.9% of their possessions.

Meanwhile, Colgate’s defense has been quite good as well, ranking 25th with an adjusted efficiency of 26.8% during competitive situations. Much like Loyola, Colgate’s offense is middle of the pack efficiency-wise and actually has an adjusted faceoff percentage even worse than Loyola.

The Greyhounds play at the 57th slowest pace and should control the tempo of this game thanks to what should be their first possession advantage from faceoffs this season. Bet these defenses to be the story of the game and take under 23.5 at -120 on BetMGM.

Pick: Under 23.5

No. 9 Cornell vs. Ohio State

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cornell hosts Ohio State in a game that seems to have bettors firmly taking sides. Cornell opened as a 3-point favorite before getting bet down to -1.5 during the week, but it is now as high as a 2.5-point favorite again. Much like Cornell’s game last weekend, I’m taking the underdogs with the points and a sprinkle on the moneyline.

Ohio State had an admirable performance against Virginia last weekend, losing 14-8 in a game which they not only covered, but were more competitive than the final score indicated. More than a couple of Virginia’s goals came off broken plays and second chances following initial defensive stops by the Buckeyes. Their reward for facing the eighth-most efficient offense is a matchup with the third-most efficient offense—yet I still like their chances for a variety of reasons.

First, Ohio State’s offense is THE top-ranked defense in the nation with an adjusted efficiency of 18.6%. If any defense can slow down CJ Kirst and the Big Red, it’s goaltender Caleb Fyock aka “Big Tasty” and the Ohio State defense.

Second, Ohio State should have a possession advantage in the form of a Tommy Burke-led faceoff unit that has an adjusted faceoff percentage of 63.0% (12th in the nation) according to Lacrosse Reference. Burke will face a Cornell unit that has an adjusted faceoff percentage below 50% without starting faceoff specialist Jack Cascadden.

Finally, Ohio State’s offense has performed slightly above average, with an adjusted efficiency of 31.1% during competitive situations (27th). Even better, they’ll match up with a Cornell defense allowing goals on 38% of possessions, which ranks 72nd in Division I.

This is a great spot to back an underrated Buckeyes squad. 

Picks: Ohio State +2.5 (1 unit) & Ohio State ML (0.5 unit)

No. 19 Delaware vs. No. 13 Michigan

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Delaware and Michigan face off on Saturday in a game that feels like it could have at-large NCAA Tournament implications, even this early in the season. While I’m avoiding taking a side in this one, I have an unconventional angle for the total of 25.5

Usually, I avoid betting an under when the game features two teams with highly efficient offenses. Michigan currently ranks 11th in offensive efficiency during competitive situations and Delaware ranks seventh. Yet, 25.5 still might be too high if you consider how this game will likely play out. 

While the Blue Hens are both efficient and play at a fast pace, they could be looking at another time of possession disadvantage against Michigan. Last week, they had the ball for just 39% of the game against Penn. Their faceoff unit has an adjusted faceoff percentage of 33.6% during competitive situations, good for 71st of 76 teams according to Lacrosse Reference. Even worse, they’re facing a Wolverines faceoff unit that ranks 6th with an adjusted faceoff percentage of 66.4% during competitive play. If the Wolverines control possession as much as expected, they should be able to control the tempo and will likely continue to play at the 53rd-slowest pace.

So, with a sizable possession advantage, Michigan’s offense should at least have success, right? Not if Delaware’s defense, which ranks second in adjusted efficiency with a 19.9% mark, has anything to say about it.

Ultimately, I have a tough time seeing this game get anywhere near 26 points and recommend betting under 25.5 at -115.

Pick: Under 25.5

No. 7 Syracuse vs. High Point

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Syracuse host High Point on Saturday evening and is an 8.5-point favorite at home. The Orange are two overtime defeats away from being undefeated, but have dominated the teams they are supposed to so far this season. As a favorite of 5.5 points or more, the Orange are 4-0 against the spread with an average margin of victory of 11.25 goals.

Syracuse is extremely balanced on both sides of the ball, ranking fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even after building large leads, they don’t let up.

The Orange will have the luxury of facing a High Point defense that is below average, ranking 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 30.9% according to Lacrosse Reference. Following their loss to Maryland, Syracuse dropped 18 on a comparable Utah defense and won by 11 goals. While 8.5 points is a lot to lay, you can trust Syracuse to cover the spread on Saturday. Bet Syracuse -8.5 at -115 on DraftKings.

Pick: Syracuse -8.5

St. Joe’s vs. Air Force

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

St. Joe’s hosts Air Force on Sunday and is currently a 2-point home favorite. Yet, we’re taking the Falcons over the Hawks in the battle of the bird teams. Both teams have flaws, but St. Joe’s has more concerning issues, the main one being goaltending.

No keeper on the St. Joe’s roster has higher than a 30% save percentage and collectively they have an adjusted save percentage of just 36.2%, which ranks 73rd of 76 teams. As a result, the Hawks' defense ranks 69th adjusted defensive efficiency. Yet, the St. Joe’s defenders don’t get a pass either. They’ve allowed 71.2% of opposing shots to be on net, which is fifth-worst in the nation.

Air Force’s adjusted offensive efficiency may only rank 59th, but they should still get plenty of quality chances against this defense.While neither team should have a significant faceoff advantage, the Falcons defense ranks 26th in the country and should be able to challenge the Hawks’ 30th-ranked offense. Ultimately, I believe St. Joe’s woes on defense will be too much to overcome and trust Air Force to get the cover and potentially even the outright upset.

Bet a full unit on Air Force +2 and a half unit on the moneyline.

Picks: Air Force +2 (1 unit) & Air Force ML (0.5 unit)