Week 3 in men’s college lacrosse starts with a trio of Friday matchups and one of my favorite bets of the weekend comes from one of these games. Our best bets continue to cash at a high rate, as we went 5-1 for +3.9 units last weekend and improved to 17-5 for 11.75 units so far this season. Let’s take a look at tonight’s St. Joe’s vs. Towson game and discuss my best bet for Friday.
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St. Joe’s vs. Towson
St. Joe's (+1.5) Odds | +105 |
Towson (-1.5) Odds | -135 |
Total | 24.5 |
Time | Friday · 4 p.m. ET |
TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
We start the weekend off with a Friday matchup between the winless St. Joe’s Hawks and 2-1 Towson Tigers. Towson opened as a short underdog at -105 on the moneyline but the line has since flipped and Towson is now the 1.5-point favorite. Yet, even if you didn’t bet Towson on the moneyline earlier in the week with me, there is still enough of an edge to bet Towson at its new price.
St. Joe’s has sorely missed their starting faceoff specialist from last season, Zach Cole. Their adjusted faceoff win percentage has gone from 61.2% (7th) last season to 42.1% through two games (55th) this season. They face a Towson team facing off at an adjusted faceoff percentage of 58% (18th) through three games, according to Lacrosse Reference.
The faceoff disparity isn’t the only reason I’m betting Towson to win and cover on Friday. The St. Joe’s defense has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 33.3% (53rd) and the expected possession disadvantage could amplify these defensive struggles. On the surface, the Nick DeMaio-led Towson offense has been just slightly above average, scoring on 29.8% of their possessions, but their adjusted efficiency without garbage time of 35.1% (11th) suggests this offense is playing much better than the box score may indicate.
As for the other end of the field, St. Joe’s offense has performed only slightly worse than last season, with an adjusted efficiency of 28.6%, but it will face a Tigers defense that ranks 9th in adjusted defensive efficiency of 21.9%. Expect Towson’s defense to keep the Hawks in check and the Tigers to go on enough runs to win by margin. Bet Towson -1.5 at +115 on BetMGM.
Pick: Towson -1.5