The 2024 NCAA men’s lacrosse quarterfinals kicks off on Saturday with top-ranked Notre Dame taking on Georgetown — the only team to beat the Irish this season.
The Irish were as high as -7.5 when these teams last faced off, but are just 4.5-point favorites in this meeting.
The total was 26.5 for the February 25 meeting, but it's now sitting at 23.5.
Let’s take a look at my best bets for this game.
No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Georgetown
| Notre Dame (-4.5) Odds | -725 |
| Georgetown (+4.5) Odds | +430 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Despite still thinking they’re the best team left in the tournament, I'm worried about Notre Dame’s potential path to repeat as champions.
No team tested the Irish more than the Hoyas, and it’s why I recommended betting a little on Georgetown to make the Final Four at +1600 prior to the tourney's start.
While I expect the Hoyas to be competitive early on again, I worry about their chances of hanging with Notre Dame for four quarters without leading faceoff man James Ball. Ball left their game against Penn State with what appeared to be a significant lower body injury and will likely be out for this round.
While Notre Dame’s Will Lynch still finished 68% at the faceoff in their first meeting, Ball managed to win seven of 18 faceoffs against Lynch and was scrappy on the groundballs.
The Hoyas’ other faceoff specialist Matthew Riley fared worse, winning just one of five attempts.
Georgetown’s recipe for beating Notre Dame was keeping the ball away from the Irish’s potent offense by dominating time of possession. They did so with long, drawn out possessions, with more than a few even ending in shot clock violations.
That strategy worked last game, but I think it'll be difficult to replicate with potentially even fewer possessions.
Instead, I’m looking to bet this total to stay under 23.5.
Both defenses rank in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference, with Notre Dame at second overall. Both defenses played each other tight in their first game, even more so than the final score indicated.
For starters, the first game was 40 seconds away from finishing with just 19 goals before Notre Dame’s Pat Kavanagh tied the game. Of the 21 goals scored, five came on the power play and one came in overtime.
In addition to both teams’ defensive prowess and aggressiveness between the lines, both offenses played at an extremely slow tempo.
On average, Georgetown is the second-slowest team in the nation and Notre Dame isn’t too far behind at ninth-slowest. Expect both these teams to be patient with their possessions and bet this game to stay under 23.5 at -120 on DraftKings.
I’m also betting Aidan Carroll to stay under 3.5 points in this game. Carroll had just three points against Notre Dame in February and needed overtime to get that third point.
This season, he’s stayed under 3.5 points in nine of 16 games, including in all four games against teams that made the 2024 NCAA tournament.
With potentially even fewer possessions, expect Notre Dame to limit Carroll on Saturday.
Bet Carroll under 3.5 points at -125 on DraftKings.
