The National Lacrosse League playoffs continue with the start of the NLL Conference Finals on Thursday night.
The NLL Conference Finals kick off with the second-seeded Calgary Roughnecks traveling to take on the fourth-seeded Colorado Mammoth for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Calgary is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is set at 22.5.
We started the NLL playoffs by going 6-1 for +4.87 units last week, so let's keep that momentum going with my favorite bet for Mammoth vs. Roughnecks.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check outmy guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Calgary Roughnecks (-1.5) vs. Colorado Mammoth
| Calgary Odds | -144 |
| Colorado Odds | +118 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Thursday, 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
I don’t think Colorado’s win over top-seeded San Diego was a fluke. Colorado's offense has found its stride and should not be overlooked. However, San Diego netminder Frank Scigliano struggled last week and let in some questionable goals — Colorado likely won’t have that kind of good fortune again when facing Calgary goalie — and MVP candidate — Christian Del Bianco.
Del Bianco should be able to stop the outside shots the Mammoth got to go last week. So while I do like the spot for the Mammoth at home (+130 on Caesars), it’s not my best bet for this game.
Instead, I’m looking to trust a specific Colorado player.
Zed Williams is as consistent of a goal scorer as you’ll find in the NLL, and his style of play should allow him to get plenty of inside looks on Del Bianco. Yet, FanDuel has made his points prop 1.5 with the over juiced to -166.
While that may feel like a lot to lay, the price still has a ton of value. This season, Williams has scored two goals or more in 13 of 18 games, making his true odds closer to -250. When you consider the lineup the Mammoth will roll out, I like this play even more.
In the Mammoth’s previous two matchups with Calgary this season, Williams registered one goal on 11 shots in the first game and three goals on five shots in the second. A weird sample size to go off, yet both games were played when righty forward Ryan Lee was out of the lineup. His presence should open up Williams for more looks.
Williams has scored at least two goals in every game with Lee in the lineup, averaging 2.6 goals per game (compared to just 1.9 without Lee).
Trust the duo of Lee and Williams to light up the score sheet on Thursday night.
Pick: Zed Williams Over 1.5 Goals
NLL Western Conference Series Strategy
Circling back on the Western Conference Finals bet we made last week. If you bet Calgary to win the West at +160, you now have the option to hedge by betting the Mammoth to win the West at +130 on FanDuel.
Personally, I expect the Roughnecks to win the series, but with the Mammoth at home for the first game, now is the best time to bet Colorado to win the series since it could steal Game 1 before heading to Calgary for Game 2, and potentially Game 3.
Another option would be to bet Colorado on the moneyline in Game 1 (+130 on Caesars) and back them on a game-by-game basis with that “Calgary to win the West” ticket still in hand.
Bottom line: If you tailed last week, you’re now in a great position to make a profit off this series.
