We’re at the mid-point of the Premier Lacrosse League season and DraftKings has posted updated win totals for all eight teams. Which teams are contenders and which are pretenders? Let’s examine how our preseason bets are doing and take a look at three more win total bets and an MVP pick to bet before the PLL resumes play.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Preseason PLL Futures Update
Prior to the start of the season, I gave out six bets to make before PLL Week 1. Let’s take a look at how those bets are doing through five weeks of games.
Archers LC Over 5.5 Wins (+118): Archers LC boast a 4-1 record and the top spot in the standings. They need to win just two of their remaining five games to surpass their win total of 5.5 and I expect them to do so given their schedule.
Atlas LC to Win 2023 PLL Championship (+550): Despite a lot of preseason hype,Atlas LC are just 1-4 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Their future odds are currently the seventh-longest at +750. While +550 isn’t as good of a price in hindsight, I still think a turnaround could be coming for a roster that is way too talented to miss the postseason (more on that later). So, while Atlas are looking far from the preseason favorites at this point, in a league where seven of the eight teams make the playoffs, anything is possible.
Chaos LC Under 4.5 Wins (-150): Chaos LC are 3-2 heading into the second half of the season. Credit to coach Andy Towers and Co. for re-inventing their offense around rookie Brian Minicus and fortifying a defense that is playing some of its best lacrosse. I expect Chaos to win at least two more games, so this one will likely end up a loss.
Chrome LC Over 5.5 Wins (+110): The Chrome are currently 1-4 and would need to win all five of their remaining games for this bet to cash … we can probably chalk this one up as a loss already as well.
Waterdogs LC to Earn a Top 3 Seed (+110): A win over Archers this week would put Waterdogs in the driver seat for not just a top-three seed, but the top seed and a first-round bye. While I feel Archers will still end up claiming the top spot, Waterdogs are currently -410 to claim one of the top-three seeds and it would take a massive collapse to prevent that from happening.
Whipsnakes LC Under 6.5 Wins (-125): It didn’t take more than five games for this bet to cash. The Whipsnakes are currently 1-4 and it’s been apparent that their tough schedule was always going to be hard to overcome, even if injuries were a catalyst for their disappointing start to the season. This is still very much a playoff team, but they’re looking at just three or four wins by the time the regular season ends.
PLL Win Totals to Bet Now
Archers LC Over 6.5 Wins
As expected, the revamped Archers have looked like the most complete team in the league through five games. They’re first in offensive efficiency, second in defensive efficiency and rookie Mike Sisselberger has given them consistency at the faceoff position — something they haven't had in the past five seasons.
At the beginning of the year, I gave out Archers over 5.5 wins so if you bet that, you might be comfortable just letting that ride and watching it potentially cash in as early as the next two weeks. But there's value in doubling down and betting them to surpass 6.5 wins.
They'll have to play a currently 4-1 Waterdogs team twice, but Archers are the better (and healthier) team and they'll at worst split those games. Their other three games are against the last-placed Chrome that they blew out in Week 2, a struggling Atlas defense and a banged-up Whipsnakes squad — teams that are a combined 3-12 through five weeks.
Archers could conceivably win out to finish at 9-1, though an eight-win season is more likely. This still gives us a nice cushion to bet them to win at least seven games. Bet them to surpass 6.5 wins at -130 on DraftKings.
Pick: Archers Over 6.5 Wins
Atlas LC Over 3.5 Wins
Another team I feel will surpass their mid-season win total is Atlas. Mike Pressler's 1-4 squad has without a doubt been the most disappointing team through five weeks. They are giving up an average of 15.4 goals per game despite drafting two defenders with two of the top three picks in this year's draft.
Yet, the talent on this roster is undeniable. They still have arguably the best attackman in the league in Jeff Teat, the best faceoff specialist and 2022 MVP in Trevor Baptiste, as well as a young core of midfielders and defenders who have been trending in the right direction even if the results haven’t gone their way.
Atlas’ biggest issues have been getting torched in transition defense and a lot of their defensive failures have come on communication breakdowns. I have no doubt Pressler has spent the past two weeks preparing this unit for the second half of the season.
Fortunately, their first game back will be against a struggling Chrome squad whose offense is averaging a league-low nine goals per game. They’ll face a tough Archers team after that, but their second meeting with Waterdogs is winnable — they nearly beat them earlier but suffered a one-goal loss thanks to three two-point goals from Connor Kelly.
They wrap the season up with rematches with Cannons and Redwoods. I like their chances against those teams despite the results of their first meetings. At +105, it’s worthwhile to bet Atlas to win at least three of their final five games.
Pick: Atlas Over 3.5 Wins
Redwoods LC Under 5.5 Wins
The Redwoods are just one win away from surpassing their preseason win total of 3.5 wins — but that fourth win could end up being more elusive than it may seem. Now consider they'll need to win at least three of their final five games to surpass their current win total of 5.5, and you're looking at my third favorite win total bet.
Despite how solid the Redwoods defense has looked, their record is smoke and mirrors. Their three wins are against an underperforming Atlas team, a Waterdogs team that looked lost on defense and ran into a red-hot Jack Kelly, and a Chaos team that was without the best goalie in the PLL, Blaze Riorden.
Just look at their record compared to goal differential — they’re 3-2 with a -7 score differential.
The advanced metrics aren’t kind to the Redwoods either. They’re last in defensive efficiency and second-to-last in offensive efficiency. This team has squeaked out wins thanks to elite goaltending from Jack Kelly and MVP performances from Rob Pannell and Ryder Garnsey, who are responsible for 41 of their 50 points. That’s not a recipe for continued success.
While Redwoods have managed to get their toughest games out of the way already, I don’t like their chances to win three or more games against their remaining opponents (Cannons twice, Chaos, Chrome, Atlas). Now is the time to fade the Redwoods and bet them to stay under their win total of 5.5 at -115 on DraftKings.
Pick: Redwoods Under 5.5 Wins
Bet this PLL Player to Win MVP
The Chaos are a team trending in the right direction with a fairly favorable back half of their schedule. I could see Chaos winning their rematch with the Redwoods and the Whipsnakes could be seen as a favorable opponent if their injury woes continue. Waterdogs will be a tough out, but a depleted Chaos roster took them to overtime in Week 1. Ultimately, their schedule is filled with a lot of favorable matchups, even if they are still ultimately toss-ups.
Regardless of what the Chaos end up finishing with in the win column, I think we'll see Josh Byrne continue to bully opposing defenses. Byrne entered this year following a long NLL season, but dispelled any health doubts with a four-point performance that ended with an overtime game-winning goal against Cannons.
He then scored seven on the top-ranked Archers and has had at least three points in every game this season. If Byrne had played in the season opener, he might be getting more attention. He currently ranks second in points per game and the new offensive scheme that Chaos has been utilizing this season will continue to benefit Byrne in the back half of the schedule.
The success of rookie Brian Minicus has also alleviated the pressure Byrne tends to face. Last game, Atlas moved top defender Gavin Adler onto Minicus, which opened up Byrne even more. Even with Minicus quarterbacking this new-look Chaos offense, Byrne is getting more favorable matchups, quality opportunities to score and capitalizing them.
Byrne is still second on the team in touches per game and is ranked 19th in the entire PLL. Even more impressive is his touches per result data: Byrne ranks fourth in the league in percent of touches that end with a point at 15.18% — higher than Zed Williams, Ryder Garnsey, Asher Nolting and Matt Rambo. Every time Byrne touches the ball, good things happen and the result is usually a goal or an assist.
His odds to win MVP are +3300 on bet365 and that number is way too long for a player I expect to finish in the top 10 in points. He will garner even more attention if Chaos manages to secure six wins or more at the end of the regular season. Add Byrne to win MVP to your futures portfolio.
Pick: Josh Byrne to Win MVP
