The Premier Lacrosse League travels to Baltimore this weekend, and the Saturday slate features the top team in the league and the three teams at the bottom of the standings.
This season, our PLL picks have gone 39-19 for +21.61 units.
Let’s start August off right with another winning week.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Archers LC (-1.5) vs. Atlas LC
| Archers Odds | -165 |
| Atlas Odds | +140 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The 5-1 Archers take on the 2-4 Atlas on Saturday, with the Archers entering as 1.5-point favorites and the total sitting at 25.5.
The Archers have a chance to surpass their preseason win total of 5.5 and should win against Atlas, but the price is a tad too steep against an Atlas team that's trending in the right direction despite its struggles.
Meanwhile, the total is one of the highest we’ve seen this season, likely due to the Archers-Waterdogs shootout last week that saw a record-tying 37 goals scored and the pre-game over 23.5 easily cash.
Yet, this is the week to zig when everyone else zags.
There's no need to worry about an Archers defense that was the most efficient entering last week and is still only allowing goals on 26% of defensive possessions — even after giving up 18 goals last week.
Archers goalie Brett Dobson was also plagued by some stick issues last week, breaking two of his sticks and having to use backup goalie Nick Washuta’s stick for more than half the game. That's not a major storyline, but still one to take note of before overreacting to last weekend’s score.
Let’s also consider the fact that the frantic pace of last week was in part due to both teams’ poor transition defenses and the Archers taking advantage of the Waterdogs' “concede-and-defend” faceoff strategy.
This week, we’ll get a good ol’ fashioned faceoff battle between two faceoff specialists, and I think the result will be lower quality offensive opportunities following faceoffs and teams valuing their possessions a bit more.
The Atlas' offense did enough last week to secure a win over Chrome, but they were often bailed out by the Chrome's turnovers and still have yet to score more than 12 goals this season.
They still struggle substituting their offensive personnel on quickly enough to get quality looks before the shot clock hits zero and are now facing an Archers team that's only conceding an average of 11.3 goals per game. Even if the Archers put up points, the Atlas may not be able to do their part in pushing this total over.
The Atlas' defense also seemed to turn over a new leaf, albeit against a floundering Chrome offense.
While this Archers offense will be their toughest test of the season, Jack Concannon’s play in net was an encouraging sign. When he’s at the top of his game, he masks inefficiencies and allows this defense to play more aggressively.
For all these reasons, I like this total to stay under 25.5 (-115 on Caesars).
I’m also fading Atlas star Jeff Teat in this matchup. Teat’s points prop has finally come down from 4.5 points to 3.5 points, but I still think he could struggle to surpass this mark against the Archers. He’s going to draw a tough matchup against Graeme Hossack, and I expect the game plan to limit Teat’s assist opportunities.
He certainly can make the Archers pay as a scorer, but they’ll trust Dobson to make saves ahead of letting Teat pick them apart with his vision.
It’s never fun to bet Teat to stay under his points total, but this is the spot to do it.
Bet Teat to stay under 3.5 points (+126 on FanDuel).
Picks: Under 25.5 | Jeff Teat Under 3.5 Points
Whipsnakes LC (-1.5) vs. Chrome LC
| Whipsnakes Odds | -158 |
| Chrome Odds | +128 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
The Whipsnakes and Chrome are two teams desperate for a win, and the Chrome could fall two games back of a playoff spot if they lose on Saturday.
The Whipsnakes are a heavy favorite against the Chrome, but there hasn’t been much to suggest that the Chrome can turn around their season against a finally fully healthy Whipsnakes team.
I would lean Whipsnakes in this matchup, but not at the current price being offered.
Instead, I have my sights set on a total that's 22.5 on FanDuel, despite being 23.5 and 24.5 at other sportsbooks.
The Chrome’s offense is certainly struggling — they’re averaging just nine points per game and have had the most struggles with the shorter shot clock following a faceoff and reset.
Yet, I think they’ve finally committed to a lineup that will give them the most success. Rookie Cross Ferrara, who scored four points against Whipsnakes in his PLL debut, was re-inserted back in the lineup and has averaged 3.5 points through the two games he played on attack.
The Chrome’s offense is more dynamic with both him and midfielder Jesse King in the lineup.
Meanwhile, the Whipsnakes are finally at full strength and scored 17 goals on a very good Chaos defense last week. They appear poised to rebound in the second half of the season.
Matt Rambo, Zed Williams and Brad Smith all being in the lineup opens the offense up and allows other players — like Will Manny — to produce.
While the Chrome’s defense is solid, they’re going to have their hands full trying to defend a potential lineup of Rambo, Williams, Smith, Manny, Tucker Dordevic and Mike Chanenchuk. I expect a ton of goals to be scored by this unit.
Furthermore, their last meeting featured 23 total goals, despite both goaltenders stopping more than 56% of shots faced and allowing no two-pointers. Now the Whipsnakes will be starting rookie Brendan Krebs, who's definitely a slight downgrade from the injured Kyle Bernlohr.
This is a recipe for a high-scoring affair, and 22.5 is just too low for a game with this much offensive firepower. Bet the total to surpass 22.5 goals (-130 on FanDuel).
I’m also looking to play a handful of player props based on a lot of the same rationale.
Betting Manny to surpass his goals and points prop following a five-point performance last week may feel like a buy-high spot, but I think we’re going to see him continue to get quality opportunities in this offense. I recommend betting him to surpass 1.5 goals (+108 on FanDuel) and 3.5 points (+126 on FanDuel) on Saturday.
Ferrara is another player who I think will surpass 1.5 goals (+144 on FanDuel) this weekend. He’s had at least two goals in both games he started on attack and has consistently shown the ability to win his one-on-one matchups — something few other players on the Chrome have demonstrated.
The Whipsnakes will obviously be game planning for him, but the price of +144 is a good one to bet him to find the back of the net twice against Krebs.
Finally, we have a great “buy-low” spot to bet soon-to-be PLL Rookie of the Year Dordevic to surpass 2.5 points (-166 on FanDuel). He recorded at least three points in every game up until last weekend, but when he’s shooting, he usually finds the back of the net.
Last week, Dordevic only took three shots, and while Smith rejoining the lineup could limit Dordevic’s touches a bit, he’s still going to find ways to put up points and has the range to go over this mark on two shots.
