PLL Week 9 resumes on Saturday with two rematches. The night starts with a rematch between Atlas and Waterdogs on ESPN2, and it continues with the second meeting in three weeks between the Redwoods and Cannons.
I have seven more PLL best bets for the Saturday slate, so let’s take a look at what they are.
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Atlas LC vs. Waterdogs (-1.5)
| Atlas Odds | +110 |
| Waterdogs Odds | -134 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Start Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| Broadcast | ESPN2 |
Odds via FanDuel
The first PLL game today features a battle between Atlas and Waterdogs with the latter favored by 1.5 and the total sitting at 24.5. Both teams are coming off a loss and looking to solidify their playoff hopes.
When Atlas and Waterdogs last met, the Waterdogs pulled off an incredible comeback thanks in large part to Connor Kelly’s nine-point performance.
The Waterdogs were outplayed for a majority of the game, but their strategy of conceding the faceoff to Trevor Baptiste and then aggressively attempting to force a turnover – which hadn’t been done up until that game – allowed them to stay in the game, and they capitalized on Atlas’ very poor transition defense.
Atlas has been trending in the right direction since the all-star break, securing a win against Chrome and losing an overtime thriller to the first-place Archers.
Had Atlas’ top defender, Gavin Adler, not been ruled out, I probably would have been ready to bet Atlas as underdogs on the moneyline. Adler’s late scratch will leave them down to just four defenders, including rookie long-stick midfielder John Geppert.
While Atlas could still pull off the upset, their lack of depth concerns me.
Instead, I’m looking to back the Atlas and fade the Waterdogs through the player prop market.
When Waterdogs last played Atlas, Jack Concannon struggled, making only nine saves and finishing with a 36% save percentage. Yet, since the all-star break, Concannon has delivered back-to-back games with a save percentage of 55% or higher and recorded 12 and 16 saves, respectively.
He’s appeared to return to form and will face a Waterdogs offense that is shooting just 22.9%, which is second-worst in the league and ahead of only the Chrome’s 21.9% – the worst shooting percentage since 2020.
Given the matchup and Concannon’s recent success, it’s a great opportunity to bet him to surpass his saves prop of 11.5 (-114 on FanDuel).
I’m also looking to back the Atlas offense by betting Bryan Costabile to surpass 2.5 points on Saturday night. Costabile has gone over this mark only twice this season, but I think we’ll see him take runs on the faceoff wing to counter Waterdogs’ faceoff strategy.
The result could be some opportunities to shoot or feed in transition.
Costabile will also be relied on a bit more heavily now that midfielder Romar Dennis has been traded, and he had success against the Waterdogs defense earlier this year, scoring four points in the 19-18 loss.
Bet Costabile to go over 2.5 points (+126 on FanDuel).
Finally, I’m also looking to fade the star of these teams’ last meeting in Connor Kelly.
Kelly’s nine points in that game were impressive, but that was the only time Kelly recorded four points or more in his last eight games. Furthermore, he’s surpassed 3.5 points only four times in his last 17 games.
He re-joined the team last week after dealing with an injury that kept him out of three straight games and didn’t appear to be totally healthy in the Waterdogs’ loss to Cannons, where he shot 0-for-5 and failed to record a point.
Bet Kelly to stay under 3.5 points (+115 on DraftKings).
Picks: Jack Concannon Over 11.5 Saves | Bryan Costabile Over 2.5 Points | Connor Kelly Under 3.5 Points
Cannons LC (-1.5) vs. Redwoods
| Redwoods Odds | +145 |
| Cannons Odds | -175 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Start Time | Saturday · 9:30 p.m. ET |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The final game of the weekend features a rematch between the 5-2 Cannons and 3-4 Redwoods.
Since the teams last met, Cannons have extended their winning streak to five games, and the Redwoods are on a four-game losing skid.
The Cannons are 1.5-point favorites again, but they're much pricier on the moneyline now following their 16-10 win when these teams last played.
While I wasn’t bold enough to bet the underdog in the first Saturday game, I am looking to back the 'dog in the final matchup of the weekend.
The Redwoods are rightly underdogs entering their rematch with the Cannons, but +145 at Caesars is way too long of a price on a team that played Cannons tight for more than three quarters just two weeks ago. While Cannons won by six in the last game, the first matchup was much closer than the final score indicated.
One of the difference-makers was Colin Kirst, who delivered a 17-save performance and robbed Redwoods of several high-quality opportunities in the second half. While he could have another big game, I think we’ll see a bit of regression against a Redwoods offense that has been improving every week.
The Woods’ midfield consisting of Cole Kirst, Charlie Bertrand, Nakeie Montgomery and Jules Heningburg has played much better than the team’s earlier midfield unit and has contributed on 18 of the team’s 22 points through their last two games.
I don’t like the decision to play newly acquired Romar Dennis in place of Kevin Rogers. However, given his range, the addition could help further spread out a Cannons defense that gave up a ton of high-quality opportunities in the middle of the field to the Redwoods last time.
Furthermore, the Redwoods dealt with some bad luck in the last meeting, with two of their shots hitting the pipe and then leading directly to a pair of goals for the Cannons. Another goal by John Sexton was waived off when replay review determined he had released the shot a second after the shot clock expired.
If Redwoods can limit the turnovers that plagued them in the last game and find open looks in the middle of the field like they did last game, they’ll have a great chance of securing a win.
I expect the Redwoods to keep this game much closer and feel that they have a better than 41% chance of winning outright.
Bet a unit on Redwoods +1.5 (+100 on Caesars) and a half unit on Redwoods moneyline (+145 on Caesars).
I also like betting Wes Berg’s goals prop.
Berg over 1.5 goals has been a cash cow this season and one that we’ve cashed in on already this season.
Berg has scored two goals or more in four of seven games this season, including a hat trick against the Cannons when they last played. I think this a good matchup and even better price to bet Berg to surpass 1.5 goals at +118 on FanDuel.
Finally, I’m looking to bet Ryan Drenner to stay under 2.5 points on Saturday night.
Drenner has recorded three points or more in just three of four games this season and hasn’t had more than two points in the last three games. Drenner has still been involved in the Cannons’ offensive scheme, but I think three points is a lot to ask against a Redwoods defense that held him scoreless in their last meeting.
Bet Drenner to stay under 2.5 points (-136 on FanDuel).
Picks: Redwoods +1.5 (1 unit) & Redwoods ML (0.5 unit) | Wes Berg Over 1.5 Goals | Ryan Drenner Under 2.5 Points
