The 2022 Premier Lacrosse League heads to Minneapolis for the final week before the All-Star break. The Archers (2-2) and Redwoods (1-3) face off first and both squads are seeking a bounceback win. Later on Friday night, the undefeated Chrome take on Atlas, the current favorite to win the PLL Championship at most sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look at each matchup and find the betting edge.
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Archers (-1.5) vs. Redwoods
| Archers Odds | -190 |
| Redwoods Odds | +150 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday, 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
The Archers enter Friday’s game favored for the fourth time this season, while the Redwoods are 1.5-point underdogs after securing their first cover as an underdog last week. The total is 24.5 at most sportsbooks, but Caesars Sportsbook is offering 23.5.
Despite only one win separating the Archers and Redwoods, these two teams have had vastly different seasons. The Archers have looked dominant at nearly every position except for faceoff, where they rank last with a team faceoff percentage of 35%. They rank first in offensive efficiency, scoring on 36.6% of their possessions and second in defensive efficiency, holding teams to the league's lowest shooting percentage (23.6%). The Archers offense will also have Connor Fields back in the lineup and have the luxury of facing a defense that is giving up a league-worst 38.7% shooting percentage. A large part of that has to do with Redwoods starting goalie Tim Troutner stopping only 36% of shots on net. Even if the Redwoods opt to start backup Jack Kelly, I don't see this defense being able to slow down the Archers.
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As for the Redwoods, their offense ranks second-to-last in offensive efficiency and is shooting at a league-worst 23.9% shooting percentage. On paper, the Archers are a matchup nightmare for the Redwoods — with the exception of one area: faceoff.
TD Ierlan isn’t off to his best start and is facing off at a subpar 44% through four games. However, during that span, Ierlan faced the league’s top four faceoff athletes in Trevor Baptiste, Joe Nardella, Connor Farrell and Tommy Kelly. Archers rookie faceoff athlete Justin Inacio will be Ierlan's most advantageous matchup this season and his ability to give the Redwoods possessions is the only thing that can level the playing field. The ultimate question is will it be enough?
Short answer: No.
The Redwoods may win the possession battle, but that won’t be enough to secure a victory against this high-powered Archers team. In the Archers’ past three games, they won an average of nearly 10 less faceoffs than their opponents. Yet, they still came away with a 17-12 victory over Chaos, a 20-9 victory over Cannons and 10-9 loss to Atlas (where they lost 83% of faceoffs). Bottomline, the Archers biggest weakness may be at faceoff, but they are terrific at outweighing that weakeaness by being extremely efficient in every other aspect. It took an 83% day from Trevor Baptiste for Atlas to lock up a win last week. Ierlan could have a big day at the stripe, but the Redwoods aren’t good enough to overcome their shortcomings on offense and defense. I like backing Archers to cover the -1.5 and that number is currently available at -120 on BetMGM. I would play this side up to -130.
The one silver lining is that the Redwoods have looked better on offense over the past two weeks, despite facing arguably the league’s two best goaltenders in Blaze Riorden and Kyle Bernlohr. While it has been enough to instill a ton of confidence, they’ve managed to put up 11 points in three of their four games and should be able to find the back of the net enough times to help the Archers push the total over 23.5.
Pick: Archers -1.5, Over 23.5 (Play to 24.5)
Atlas (-1.5) vs. Chrome
| Atlas Odds | -130 |
| Chrome Odds | +105 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Friday night matchup between Chrome and Atlas feels like a battle for first place and, if the Whipsnakes lose on Saturday, could result in the winner securing the top of the standings again.Atlas enters Friday’s matchup favored for the fifth straight time this season, but this time as only 1.5-point favorites. Chrome are 1.5-point underdogs for the first time since week two, despite a 4-0 record. The total is set firmly at 23.5, though it’s slightly juiced to the over.
After putting up an average of 16.5 points in its first two games, the Atlas offense has looked rather lackluster and needed an 83% faceoff performance from Trevor Baptiste to squeak out a win against the Archers last week. However, the defense has done its part through four games, allowing the third-lowest scores against average at 10 per game, in large part thanks to Jack Concannon’s 60% save percentage, which is tied for the league’s best.
On the flipside, many of the same things can be said about the Chrome defense, which ranks first in scores against average with 9.5. The Chrome’s starting defense has played well in front of Sean Sconone and should make things very difficult for the Atlas offense on Friday night. On the other end, the Chrome offense has found a lot of success this season, in particular via assisted scoring (40%) and converting goals around the crease (71%). In fact, they rank first in the PLL in both categories. Unfortunately, this week they face a Jack Concannon-led defense, which has limited opponents to the second-lowest assisted shooting percentage (28.1%) and second-lowest shooting percentage around the crease (41%).
However, this game will ultimately come down to the faceoff battle between Trevor Baptiste and Connor Farrell, who enter this game with 74% and 63% faceoff percentages and have been the driving forces behind their team’s success. Baptiste has edged Farrell in their head-to-head matchups, winning 60.87% of faceoffs during their careers, but this matchup should be a rock fight from start to finish and both will have a much smaller advantage than in previous weeks.
The battle at the stripe should help limit both Atlas and Chrome’s potent transition offenses, which have accounted for 38.2% and 23.5% of their respective offensive production. If the battle at the stripe remains 50-50, possessions will become more valuable for each team and we should see a slower tempo. Given these factors, as well as the strong defensive play from both teams, I like betting the total to fall under 23.5 in this game. You can get that at even money on BetMGM.
Pick: Under 23.5
