The Premier Lacrosse League wraps up the regular season in Salt Lake City. The weekend starts off with a rematch between the top-seeded Archers and third-placed Waterdogs then continues with a Week 1 rematch between Atlas and Redwoods. Let's take a look at where the betting edge is in each matchup.
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Archers LC (-1.5) vs. Waterdogs LC
| Archers Odds | -170 |
| Waterdogs Odds | +130 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Friday · 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365.
The Archers and Waterdogs meet with much lower stakes than their last meeting. Since the Archers' 19-18 win over the Waterdogs in Dallas, they've locked up the top seed in the playoffs and a first round bye. The Waterdogs will likely end up with the second or third seed even if they lose, but there is a scenario where if the Redwoods win with a large enough goal differential and Waterdogs lose by a large enough goal differential, they could drop to the fourth seed. Despite being heavier underdogs this time around, I expect Waterdogs to be competitive again and win outright against Archers on Friday night.
Since their last meeting, Archers have been rolling, but have played some much weaker competition. Their last three games have been against Atlas, Chrome and Whipsnakes—teams with a combined record of 7-20. While their win over an underrated Whipsnakes team was impressive, they're a bit overvalued entering this game against Waterdogs. While the Archers certainly won't relent a win, their motivation could also be much lower compared to the Waterdogs.
The Waterdogs will also have two key players back in the lineup in starting goalie Dillon Ward and midfielder Connor Kelly. Backup goalie Matt DeLuca allowed 19 goals on 31 shots in their last game, so Ward's return to the lineup is a considerable addition. The Waterdogs are 5-0 when Ward is in the lineup and Ward has a 60.2% save percentage in those contests, allowing an average of just 9.4 goals per game.
Connor Kelly should also be a catalyst for a Waterdogs victory. Kelly's range can help spread the defense but his vision also strengthens a right side that struggles to replace his skill set when he's out of the lineup.
Ultimately, this game should be way closer to a coin flip than it's being priced. The Waterdogs' odds weren't any longer than +100 when these teams last met and Waterdogs have continued to perform well since. Take advantage of an undervalued Waterdogs team and bet Waterdogs to win outright at +130 on bet365.
I'm also betting on Waterdogs attackman Michael Sowers to record over 3.5 points on Friday night. Sowers has gone over this mark in four of nine games this season and one of them was against Archers. Furthermore, Sowers has surpassed this mark in 11 of his last 21 games, making his true odds to score four or more closer to -110. Instead, we're getting a price of +145 on FanDuel. Bet Sowers to have a big game and go over 3.5 points.
Picks: Waterdogs ML, Michael Sowers Over 3.5 Points, Ward Over 13.5 Saves
Atlas LC vs. Redwoods LC (-1.5)
| Atlas Odds | +125 |
| Redwoods Odds | -155 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Friday · 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Atlas and Redwoods rematch follows on Friday night with Redwoods entering as a 1.5-point favorite. Redwoods have covered the spread as a favorite just once this season and narrowly escaped with a win against the last-ranked Chrome last week.
I think the Woods could be on upset watch again this week against an Atlas team that has been trending in the right direction even if it hasn't equated to wins.
Since defeating the Chrome in what ended up being the victory that will likely secure Atlas the final spot in the playoffs, Atlas has played much better. They took the first-placed Archers to overtime, lost to the Waterdogs despite hanging with them for three quarters and nearly beat the Cannons despite giving up three two-point goals late in the game.
As much as Atlas has underperformed this season, they've finally appeared to find the right offensive lineup and are playing better defense. If they can limit the defensive miscues that have plagued them and get better goaltending out of Jack Concannon, they could make some noise in the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Redwoods offense has been playing better, but still relies a bit too much on its attack and their defense could have its hands full against a loaded Atlas offense that has added Dylan Molloy and Myles Jones since these teams last played—both who have been playing well in their new roles on Atlas.
Bet Atlas to build some momentum heading into the playoffs with a win over the Redwoods at +115 on Caesars.
I also expect Jeff Teat to have another big game against the Redwoods, though I expect him to impact the game more as a distributor. The Redwoods defense are quick to slide, which should allow Teat to draw the second defender and feed his teammates. Teat had four assists in the last game against the Redwoods this year and arguably has more weapons to feed this time around. Bet Teat to record at least three assists at +120 on DraftKings.
A recipient of some of those Teat's assists could be Eric Law. Law had four goals in the last game against Redwoods and has had at least three points in the last three meetings between these teams. I expect Law to operate predominately as a goal scorer again in this game. He's had at least three goals in four of nine games this season so +150 on FanDuel is a good price to bet Law to record another hat trick or better on Friday.
Finally, we're not going to fear the juice and going to bet Rob Pannell to stay under 4.5 shots on goal at -215 on DraftKings. This SOG prop is heavily juiced, but may not be juiced enough. Pannell has taken five or more shots on goal in just two of nine games this season and just three in his last 20 games. Pannell should operate more as a distributor again in this game, which makes betting him to stay under 4.5 SOG a safe bet.
