PLL Week 10 continues on Saturday with the Chrome taking on the Redwoods and the Waterdogs facing Chaos. I have six best bets for Saturday’s slate, including three player props, two game props and a total. Let’s dive into each matchup.
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Chrome LC vs. Redwoods LC (-1.5)
| Chrome Odds | +150 |
| Redwoods Odds | -195 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings
The Chrome’s playoff hopes may be on life support, but they were given a bit of a boost thanks to Atlas’ 14-13 loss on Friday night. They enter their game against Redwoods as a 1.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks, though Caesars is offering Chrome +2.5. The total is the lowest of the week at 22.5 across all sportsbooks.
I think Chrome played better than expected last week against the Archers and actually match up well with Redwoods. Chrome have struggled against the two-man game this season, but Redwoods rank second-to-last in two-man game success. The Chrome will likely dare the Redwoods to beat them on the dodge and trust their defenders to win their 1-on-1 matchups or Sean Sconone to make a stop if they don’t. Furthermore, Redwoods defense is also giving the second-most transition goals, which has been the lone bright spot of this Chrome offense, generating 33% of their goals in transition.
Yet, it’s hard to trust Chrome’s settled offense to get it done given their historic low efficiency this year. Chrome’s offense has struggled to win their one-on-one matchups and their ball movement has been even worse. Rather than bet Chrome as underdogs or play the total, which to me is where it should be at 22.5, I want to back this Chrome defense in another way.
I recommend betting Chrome to record more saves than Redwoods at +120 on DraftKings. Chrome starting goalie Sean Sconone has been playing well lately, averaging 14.25 saves per game in his last four starts and will face a Redwoods offense that ranks second-to-last in offensive efficiency and has taken the third highest amount of shots. I think this is a great situation for Sean Sconone to record more saves than Redwoods goalie Jack Kelly.
My second game prop is under 0.5 two-point goal at +114 on FanDuel. Each of these teams have scored just one two-point goal through their eight games so far this season and while both have players who can shoot from range, neither offense hunts for two-pointers. Expect the two-point attempts to be few and any that do occur to stay out of the net.
As for player props, I'm once again betting Ryder Garnsey to stay under 3.5 points. Garnsey is a goal-scorer first and he'll face a Chrome defense whose strength is winning their one-on-one matchups. Garnsey has surpassed 3.5 points just three times this season and has yet to record four or more points in four straight games. Chrome's defensemen and short-stick defensive middies are equipped to keep Garnsey in check and I expect him to struggle to put up points on Saturday night. Bet Garnsey to stay under 3.5 points (+100 on DraftKings.)
Finally, I'm betting Jesse King to record two or more points. King has generated quality opportunities since joining the Chrome lineup, averaging 1.5 points per game and 1.8 shots on goal. The reason I like his points prop instead of goals prop though is because he'll be facing a Redwoods defense that is quick to slide and he could end up with a handful of assist opportunities off the dodge. Bet King to go over 1.5 points (+102 on FanDuel.)
Picks: Ryder Garnsey Under 3.5 Points, Jesse King Over 1.5 Points, Under 0.5 Two-Point Goal, Chrome to Record the Most Saves
Chaos LC vs. Waterdogs LC (-1.5)
| Chaos Odds | +110 |
| Waterdogs Odds | -134 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
The final game of the weekend features last year’s two title game teams and a rematch from Week 1. The Waterdogs enter as 1.5-point favorites and the total is 24.5.
While both offenses have played well, I'm surprised this total got as high as 24.5. The last two meetings between these teams have seen 15 and 20 total goals respectively and both team's goaltenders have stopped 58% of the shots they've faced this season, tied with Brett Dobson for highest in the league.
The Chaos defense has allowed just 11.9 goals per game when Blaze Riorden is in net and the Waterdogs are allowing just 9.8 goals per game when Dillon Ward starts. I expect this game to be another low-scoring affair between these two teams. Bet this game to stay under 24.5 (-110 on BetRivers.)
I’m also targeting Keiran McArdle’s goals prop in this game. In their last meeting, McArdle was held to 0 goals on nine shots and I expect the Chaos defense to keep him in check again. McArdle has had a hat trick in three straight games so his goals prop of 2.5 is a bit inflated.
McArdle has only scored more than two goals in eight of his last 21 games and hasn’t scored more than two goals in four total games against the Chaos. I expect Chaos to force McArdle to be a feeder and Riorden to have success stopping any shots that McArdle may get off. Bet McArdle to stay under 2.5 goals (-130 on FanDuel.)
Picks: Under 24.5, Kieran McArdle Under 2.5 Goals
