The 2022 Premier Lacrosse League playoffs begin with a matchup between the second-seed Chrome and seventh-seed Chaos—the same opening round matchup PLL fans witnessed in 2020. Chrome enter this game as 1.5-point favorites after finishing the regular season with a 7-3 record. One of those seven wins was a 13-9 victory over Chaos in Denver.
Chaos, the 2022 defending champions, limp into the postseason after finishing with a 2-8 record and victories against just the other two worst teams in the league (Redwoods and Cannons). The total is 22.5 at most sportsbooks, which is the lowest of the weekend.
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Chrome (-1.5) vs. Chaos
| Chrome Odds | -215 |
| Chaos Odds | +172 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
While the Chaos managed to win the championship with a similarly poor regular season record last year, they lack any sort of momentum heading into the playoffs this year. Chaos have been competitive in the majority of their games, but they've failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs in five of eight games this season.
The Chaos defense is still led by 2021 MVP Blaze Riorden, but it has lacked a suitable replacement for defender Johnny Surdick, who is missing this season due to military commitments. After trying out rookie Brett Kennedy as a replacement at close defense during the early part of the season, the Chaos started using long-stick midfielders CJ Costabile and Troy Reh as their third defender.
Neither has effectively replaced the 2019 Schmeisser award winner (an honor given to the NCAA's top defenseman). The result has been a leaky defense that has allowed Riorden to see a league-high 428 shots in goal.
Additionally, Riorden was questionable heading into last game when he only stopped six of 16 shots on goal, his lowest save total in the past four seasons. He posted his second-lowest save total of the season against the Chrome, stopping only 12 shots, which is low by his standards.
He may be banged up entering Saturday's matchup, which is an ominous sign because he has only recorded 12 or fewer saves eight times in the past four seasons… and three of those games came against the Chrome.
This Chrome offense is starting to find its groove, averaging more than 12 goals per game in their last three wins. If they can limit the sloppy turnovers that plagued them in the first half of the last meeting, they should build a comfortable lead. Connor Farrell will also give them a decent possession advantage, winning 61% of his faceoffs against a banged up Max Adler last meeting.
While the Chaos have plenty of offensive weapons, the Chrome defense’s ability to shut down some of the top offenses has been the story of their season. Their Scores Against Average (SAA) of 10.2 goals per game ranks second in the PLL, and their 24% efficiency in settled defense is not only the best this year, but it also ranks second all-time in a season.
Ultimately, if Chrome take care of the ball on offense and limit the quality shots that Sean Sconone sees, they should both win and cover against the Chaos. I recommend betting Chrome -1.5. You can currently find this at -134 on FanDuel, but be sure to shop around for the best price.
Pick: Chrome -1.5
Player Prop Bets
I've laid out why I think the Chrome offense could have success against this Chaos defense, and that's why I'm eyeing two Chrome player props in this matchup.
I'm backing Dylan Molloy to exceed his points prop of 2.5 Points (-115 on BetMGM). Molloy should get plenty of opportunities to beat his one-on-one matchup and score against a defense that prefers not to slide. Yet, even if Chaos choose to quickly double Molloy, he has the ability to find open teammates and assist on goals as well.
We saw both instances when Molloy recorded two goals and two assists in the first meeting with the Chaos. He assisted Jordan MacIntosh on a goal as four Chaos defenders crashed on him and bull dodged against Jarrod Neumann to put home one of his goals. Furthermore, Molloy is averaging exactly 2.5 points per game and has gone over this mark in half of his games.
Brendan Nichtern will also have success on Saturday, but I'm looking to play his shots on goal prop instead of his points or assists props. Nichtern has averaged 3.8 shots on goal per game and should get plenty of looks against this porous Chaos defense.
His shots on goal prop is also a much wiser bet than playing his high point total of 4.5 on most sportsbooks or laying the juice at -178 to bet over 3.5 points. While Nichtern will have a strong performance and could go over both those marks, betting Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-130 on DraftKings) is the best angle to play.
Picks: Dylan Molloy Over 2.5 Points, Brendan Nichtern Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
