After three days of Premier Lacrosse League round robin play, the PLL Championship Series semi-finals are here! We now have data from six games to base our predictions on and that’s six more than we had to start the week.
So let’s take a look at my favorite picks for the Atlas vs. Whipsnakes and Chrome vs. Archers.
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Atlas (-6.5) vs Whipsnakes
| Atlas Odds | -390 |
| Whipsnakes Odds | +295 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The first game of the semifinals is a matchup between the undefeated Atlas and winless Whipsnakes. The Atlas are as high as 6.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks and the total is 47.5. The first meeting between these two teams saw 45 goals scored and the Atlas win by a comfortable margin, 29-16.
Yet, I won’t be taking a side in this game. The Atlas look to be in a class of their own when playing in this format, but betting a 6.5-point favorite in the PLL whether on the spread or moneyline is not a profitable long-term strategy. If you like the Atlas that much, you’re better off just betting them to win it all even at a very short price of -120.
Instead, I’m betting both the Atlas and Whipsnakes to let the shots fly early and often in the first half. Every game featuring the Atlas — including their first meeting on Wednesday — has seen the first half total reach or exceed 25 goals.
While the full game total of 47.5 is also enticing, the risk you run with betting a full game total in this format, particularly if you think the Atlas are going to have a large lead towards the end, is that teams could start to slow down in the second half. This will also be these teams fourth straight game in as many days. I like betting the total go over 24.5 in the first half at -120 on DraftKings
Pick: Over 24.5 1st Half (-120)
Archers (-1.5) vs. Chrome
| Archers Odds | -140 |
| Chrome Odds | +115 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
As for the second game of the evening, we get a much tighter matchup between two teams that needed overtime to decide their first meeting. The Archers enter as 1.5-point favorites and the total is set at 47.5 on most sportsbooks.
A combined 45 goals were scored when these teams last met, but even that was unusually high for these teams considering the game went into overtime and it was just 12-6 heading into the half. The Chrome have had arguably the best defensive unit this week, with the totals of their first games ending up inflated due to the struggles of backup goaltender Owen McElroy.
When McElroy is in net, the Chrome have given up an average of 10.3 goals per period. When starter Sean Sconone has been in net, the Chrome have allowed just 3.9 goals per period. Coach Jacques Monte opted to start Sconone in net for the entire game on Friday and we should expect him to go with him full time in an elimination game.
This is part of the reason why I like betting under 47.5, but my play on the under has as much to do with these offenses as it does their respective defenses.
Both offenses have played well, but their style of play has mostly favored a slower, settled pace. The Chrome in particular opted for settled offensive sets and early in the week we saw a lot of shots come with just a few seconds left on the shot clock. The Archers have also been a team focused on working the clock to find the best shot and I think we’ll see both teams avoid getting into a track meet in this one.
In Friday’s press conference, Grant Ament even spoke of how the Archers hope to be more patient following goals scored against them and utilizing the full time allotted to get the ball over the midline and save their legs. This approach will obviously be situational, but I think it provides some insight into how the Archers may approach their possessions in this game—particularly against a Chrome team that also likes to get into a settled, slower pace.
Ultimately, I think is is a great spot to bet under 47.5 at -110 on Caesars.
Pick: Under 47.5
