Premier Lacrosse League Friday Picks: PLL Best Bets for New York Atlas vs Denver Outlaws

Friday night’s second Premier Lacrosse League game features the top team in each conference with the New York Atlas priced as 2.5-point favorites against the Denver Outlaws. The total is 26.5, but rather than target the total or a side, I’m betting five props in this game.

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New York Atlas vs. Denver Outlaws

Odds via BetMGM

I’m not yet sold on the Denver Outlaws. Their win against Utah, while impressive, required an unbelievable fourth quarter comeback. In their win last week, they eventually pulled away against the California Redwoods, but I’ve discussed how low I am on the California Redwoods and it wasn’t as dominant a performance from Denver as the final score might indicate.

As for the Atlas, their first loss — at the hands of the Maryland Whipsnakes — last week was a bit surprising, but not entirely shocking considering how much their defense has struggled. It took one bad game from Tim Troutner to expose New York on defense. While I think they’ll bounce back against a Denver team that still struggles with turnovers, I’m not ready to bet them as a 2.5-point favorite against Denver. 

Unlike California, New York will certainly put up more than eight points, but I don’t expect it to be an easy day for the PLL’s most prolific offense. JT Giles-Harris has had success limiting Jeff Teat in the past and while Denver will also have to contend with Connor Shellenberger this time around, I expect the Outlaws to be able to slow down New York more than others.

So, I’m targeting a handful of props for this primetime matchup.

The first prop I’m betting is Over 1.5 two-point goals at -146 on FanDuel. While it’s juiced to the over at -146, I think there’s more than a 60% chance we see multiple two-pointers scored. Denver has struggled to defend shots from range this season and I think the Outlaws will be susceptible to New York’s numerous deep threats. The Atlas have also struggled to defend beyond the arc, allowing a league-high seven two-point goals through five games. Both offenses also have plenty of shooters with range, with Graham Bundy, Sam Handley and Brennan O’Neill the likeliest of candidates for Denver and Dox Aitken, Myles Jones, Bryan Costabile and Danny Logan being possible options for New York.

Bundy is one player in particular who I think will have a big day against New York. Bundy had his breakout game last weekend, notching five points on one two-pointer and three single goals. FanDuel is offering goal and points props for Bundy this week, but I think they could be a bit low given this matchup. Even at -146, I recommend betting Bundy to go Over 2.5 points.

I also expect Denver attackman Josh Zawada to factor heavily in this game. While Zawada only managed to record two points last week, he has a ton of upside as a goal scorer and as a passer — as was evident in his five-point performance against Utah. With fellow attackman Jack Myers still out with an injury, Denver will likely rely heavily on Zawada. I recommend betting him to go Over 2.5 points at -120 on BetMGM or DraftKings.

Myles Jones can score from range, but I’m looking to bet him to stay under his points prop of 2.5. Jones has done a lot with limited touches, but I think his production is unsustainable. Jones had just 14 and 11 touches in his past two games and with Jake Stevens joining this already crowded midfield, I’m not expecting Jones to be able to consistently put up three or more points each game. Denver also has a strong corps of short-stick-defensive midfielders who can limit him. Bet Jones to stay Under 2.5 points at -120 on BetMGM.

Finally, I’m fading Atlas rookie Connor Shellenberger. He has adapted to the pro game seamlessly, but his point total is too high given his boom-or-bust output so far this season. At -115 on Bet365, there’s value on betting Shellenberger to stay Under 4.5 points on Friday night.

Picks: Over 1.5 Two-Pointers, Graham Bundy Over 2.5 Points, Josh Zawada Over 2.5 Points, Myles Jones Under 2.5 Points, Connor Shellenberger Under 4.5 Points

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