Week 4 in the Premier Lacrosse League continues with the California Redwoods facing the Denver Outlaws on ESPN2. The Outlaws are a slight favorite for the first time in more than a year, while the total sits at 25.5 across sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look at my favorite bets for the Saturday night showdown.
California Redwoods vs Denver Outlaws
| California (+1.5) Odds | ML: -105 |
| Denver (-1.5) Odds | ML: -135 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via bet365
I have both of these teams at the bottom of my latest power rankings but think Denver has one of the higher ceilings in the league. What the Outlaws lack in experience and chemistry, they can certainly make up for in talent against what might be the worst defense in the PLL right now.
California edges Denver in goaltending and face-offs, but Denver faceoff specialist Luke Wierman has shown he can hold his own with the best and should at least minimize the damage TD Ierlan inflicts at the stripe.
I also think Owen McElroy is a bit underrated despite getting shelled against Utah in his first career start.
The Redwoods certainly have the offense to attack Denver, but I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from this defense. Denver’s biggest weakness has been its transition defense, and I don’t expect California to exploit that like Carolina and Utah did.
The most lopsided matchup in this game is the Denver offense against the California defense.
California is still without last season’s second overall pick Owen Grant and could be without Chris Fake on Saturday after he showed up as doubtful on the injury report following a hamstring injury in Week 3. Both Grant and Fake would have been the prime candidates to guard 2024 first-overall pick Brennan O’Neill.
If Fake is out as expected, he’ll likely draw rookie Chris Conlin, Arden Cohen or Holden Garlent. Cohen and Garlent, in particular, have struggled so far this season, with each allowing opponents to shoot higher than 45% so far this season.
While Denver is without attackmen Logan Wisnauskas and Jack Myers, the potential lineup of Cross Ferrara, Josh Zawada and O’Neill should fare just fine against this thin Redwoods defense.
Bet Denver to win and cover as 1.5-point favorites at +115 at bet365.
O’Neill should be poised for a big game against California. While his points prop of 4.5 is a tad high, I do think we’ll see him thrive as a goal scorer and like his odds to record a hat trick on Saturday night.
With no Grant or Fake available to guard O’Neill, I expect him to have a ton of shooting success. Even if Fake can play, a less than 100% version will have a tough time given the other defenders around him.
Bet O’Neill to go over 2.5 goals at -120 at bet365.
Zawada should also be in for another big day following a five-point performance last game. Zawada will slot in the Jack Myers role behind the net and should have plenty of chances to score and feed his teammates against this California defense.
Bet him to go over 3.5 points at -105 at bet365.
Another player I’m targeting is Denver’s Graham Bundy. Bundy is a stretch shooter with experience playing both attack and midfield in college. While I still expect to see him more from the midfield, he should factor heavily on the right side. I think there’s a greater than 27% chance he finds the back of the net in the first quarter.
At +270 at FanDuel, his odds to score in the first quarter are a bit too long, especially considering Denver’s absences on offense this week. Bet a half-unit on Bundy to score in the first quarter.
As for California, I’m fading Ryder Garnsey this week by betting him to stay under his points prop of 4.5 points.
Garnsey had seven points last game, but two of those points came on an empty-net two-pointer. The Redwoods attackman has boom-or-bust potential and has surpassed 4.5 points in only four of his 14 games dating back to last year, including just once in his last 10 games.
I expect this Denver defense to keep him in check enough to stay under this mark. Bet Garnsey to stay under 4.5 points at -135 at BetMGM.
Finally, another angle for this game is betting the total 2-pointers. While it’s juiced to the over at -150, there's a better than 60% chance we see multiple 2-point goals scored in this game.
California has found early success scoring from range this season, and shooters like Garrett Degnon, Charlie Bertrand, Chris Gray and even Romar Dennis could all be candidates to hit a 2-pointer. Denver has also struggled in transition so far this season and allowed three 2-pointers already this season through two games.
While Jack Kelly and California haven’t allowed more than a pair of 2-point goals, they have also struggled with the deep ball, allowing a handful of goals that were just barely inside the arc to both Carolina and New York.
Denver has its own stable of stretch shooters in Bundy, O’Neill, Sam Handley and Jake Piseno, so I think there’s a good chance we see more than one 2-point goal in this game. Bet over 1.5 2-point goals at -150 at DraftKings.
Picks: Denver Outlaws -1.5 · Brennan O’Neill Over 2.5 Goals · Josh Zawada Over 3.5 Points · Ryder Garnsey Under 4.5 Points · Graham Bundy 1st-Quarter Goal Scorer (0.5 Unit) · Over 1.5 2-Pointers
