The second Premier Lacrosse League quarterfinals matchup features a rematch of a 2019 PLL quarterfinals. The Archers enter as 1.5-point favorites against a Redwoods team that has been profitable as underdogs this season against the spread. The total is currently 24.5 at FanDuel and most other sportsbooks.
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Archers (-1.5) vs. Redwoods
| Archers Odds | -188 |
| Redwoods Odds | +152 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel.
When the Archers and Redwoods last played, Archers attackmen Grant Ament and Connor Fields were still rehabbing injuries, Eddy Glazener was fully healthy and Jack Kelly was making his first PLL start in net.
A lot has changed since that meeting. Ament and Fields are back in the lineup, Glazener will miss his second consecutive game with an Achilles injury and Kelly has cemented himself as the Redwoods starter.
While Ament and Fields have certainly added another layer to the Archers, their high-powered offense has had around the same level of production. The only time they struggle is when they don't have the ball — which, unfortunately, has plagued them during the past four seasons. The Archers faceoff unit is performing at a league-worst 38%. All of Archers four losses have come against teams with a dominant faceoff athlete (Atlas twice, Chrome and Whipsnakes).
While T.D. Ierlan hasn't performed at the same level as Trevor Baptiste, Joe Nardella and Connor Farrell, he has shown he can help swing a game in the Redwoods' favor. When these two teams last met, he went 62% at the stripe. While he'll still need the Redwoods offense to put up points and the defense to make stops, Ierlan could be the X-factor in this game.
In addition to the potential faceoff advantage, the Redwoods have demonstrated an ability to hang with teams late, thanks to the presence of multiple two-point threats and the resurgence of Rob Pannell. The Redwoods may only be 4-6 straight up, but they've covered in four of their past five games and scored 12 or more goals in those contests. Additionally, the Redwoods are 7-1 against the spread as underdogs since last year. Finally, while not a direct indicator of success, in the Redwoods' past six playoff games, they've either won straight up or lost by one goal.
Despite the loss of Glazener, I think the Redwoods have the capability to keep the game close and the offense will maintain pace with the Archers' offense. I like betting Redwoods +1.5 and you can get that at +104 on FanDuel.
The game will feature goaltenders Adam Ghitelman and Jack Kelly, who have the seventh and eighth worst save percentages among goalies with a minimum of six starts. Pair that with the Archers most efficient offense in the league, a Redwoods' offense that is peaking at the right time and you have a recipe for a high-scoring game. However, rather than bet over 24.5, I'm betting the first half over of 12.5 (-125 on DraftKings.)
PLL games tend to start out fast, then slow down in the second half as teams become more conservative with possessions. In addition to the Archers having the highest-scoring offense, 12 or more goals have been scored in the first half of the Redwoods' past six games. Ultimately, I think both offenses will find the back of the net.
Picks: Redwoods +1.5, Over 12.5 (1H)
Player Prop Bets
In addition to betting the first half total to go over, I also like two players to go over their scoring props. I believe Rob Pannell will continue to drive the Redwoods' offense and think he'll go over his points prop of 3.5 (-130 on BetMGM). He's gone over this mark in five of 10 contests this season (including in his past meeting with the Archers), including his past three games.
While betting his points prop is the safer bet, I also like betting over on Pannell's assist prop of 2.5 (+150 on BetMGM). I think he’ll be more of a feeder in this game given his matchup with Graeme Hossack. He's also managed to go over this number in four of 10 games and dropped four assists against Archers in their previous meeting.
I also like Tom Schreiber's points prop, but think there's a better angle to capitalize on what could be a big game for the Archers' midfielder. His shots on goal prop is currently set at 3.5 (-145 on DraftKings). While it has been juiced a bit since opening at -130, I still think it's a good bet given the matchup and I'd play it to -150. Schreiber should have some opportunities to draw favorable matchups against a weaker short-stick defensive middie group and has averaged 3.7 shots on goal per game this season. Rather than hope for a four-point performance, bet Schreiber to take four shots on goal, regardless of whether they go in.
Picks: Tom Schreiber Over 3.5 Shots on Goal, Rob Pannell Over 2.5 Assists and Over 3.5 Points
