The Denver Outlaws’ second game of the weekend is a rematch with the Carolina Chaos.
Denver opened as a slight underdog, but the line has flipped at most sportsbooks following the news that Carolina’s leading scorer Josh Byrne would be out of the lineup. The total opened at 22.5 at FanDuel but is now 23.5 across all sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at my favorite Outlaws vs Chaos picks and bets for the final game of PLL Week 10.
Denver Outlaws vs. Carolina Chaos Odds
| Denver (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -115 |
| Carolina (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -105 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via FanDuel
A lot has changed since these teams last played. Brennan O’Neill was playing midfield, Sean Sconone was starting in net and Eric Law hadn’t rejoined the Outlaws yet. On the Chaos side, Josh Byrne was healthy and Blaze Riorden ended up leaving the game early with a knee injury. The first meeting also saw 27 goals scored between the two teams.
Earlier in the week, I bet this game to go over 22.5, but I don’t like the over as much at 23.5 — especially with Byrne absent. The Outlaws have been prone to scoring droughts during settled sets and while they have been effective in transition, they've been entirely too reliant on unsettled goals. If you’re looking to bet this total, I recommend waiting to see if both teams start slow. If both teams look good on offense, but are stifled by strong goalie play early, then a live bet on a total of 20.5 to 22.5 would be a move I’d make.
I also think Denver is a bit undervalued at +100 on a few books, but Carolina’s defense is good enough and its offense is opportunistic enough to keep this close even without Byrne. There are better ways to bet on this game than trusting a Jekyll and Hyde Denver team.
I’m expecting a close game. While BetMGM hasn't posted game props for today's games, if they end up posting winning margin props, I'd consider betting 1-2 goals at a fair price. I don’t expect either team to be able to run away with this game. Half of Carolina’s games have been won or lost by one possession, and three of Denver’s eight games have as well. Instead of picking a side, bet this game to end with a winning margin of 1-2 goals.
Player Prop Bets for Outlaws vs Chaos
I’m also targeting three player props.
The first player I’m targeting his Carolina’s Kyle Jackson. Jackson has scored a goal in five of eight games this season and, as the only true lefty on the roster, should get the start on attack in Byrne’s absence.
Jackson has had success filling in on the left side and had a goal against Denver in their first meeting this season, and last year as well. At +195 on FanDuel, his odds to find the back of the net in the first period are a bit too long. Bet a half unit on Jackson to score in the first quarter.
I’m betting Shane Knobloch to have two goals. Knobloch scored against Denver in their first game before suffering a leg injury at the end of the third quarter. That injury lingered for a few games after, but Knobloch has had success lately with multigoal games in three straight contests.
He’s shooting 29.9% this season and should have plenty of opportunities throughout this game. At +164 on FanDuel, those odds are fair to bet Knobloch to go over 1.5 goals on Saturday night.
I’m also betting Brennan O’Neill to stay under 3.5 Points at +122 on FanDuel. This price equates to a 45% probability that O’Neill stays under, but I think there’s closer to a 57% chance that this Carolina defense holds him to three or fewer.
While there’s also a 4.5 on DraftKings, the odds are -225 (69% probability) and there’s much less of an edge at those odds, even if there’s a higher chance he stays under. Bet Jarron Neumann and the Carolina defense to hold the Denver rookie to under 3.5 points.
Picks: Kyle Jackson 1st Quarter Goal Scorer (0.5 unit), Shane Knobloch Over 1.5 Goals, Brennan O’Neill Under 3.5 Points
