The second game of Friday night's Premier Lacrosse League Week 11 schedule features the Carolina Chaos and Boston Cannons.
The Cannons are 1.5-point favorites following a bye and the total, which opened at 21.5, now sits at 22.5.
Let’s take a look at my best bets for the contest.
Boston Cannons vs. Carolina Chaos
| Boston (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -190 |
| Carolina (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +140 |
| Total | 22.5 |
| Time | Friday · 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM
Neither team can change their fate all that much, but this game still isn’t meaningless for either side.
Boston still has an outside shot at the top seed and a first-round bye if New York loses by a large enough margin and the Cannons win by enough to make up for the current 18-point differential.
Meanwhile, Carolina’s point differential will likely get it in even without a win, but there's an outside chance California could get in ahead of it with a big win and significant loss by the Chaos.
Ultimately, the motivation will be there for both teams, and I think the moneyline and spread are about where I would set these lines.
Instead, I’m targeting the total of 22.5.
The under has hit in six of nine of Carolina’s games, including last week’s 4-10 loss, when the total was 21.5. Still, this current total is too low considering the amount of offensive firepower on Boston’s side.
Games featuring the Cannons are averaging 24.4 total points per game, and they've gone over 22.5 in six of nine games this season. Carolina’s settled defense has been great, but Boston loves to push in transition and could exploit the Chaos in unsettled situations.
The bigger concern for this total may be Carolina’s offense, which has been wildly inconsistent. While it only managed to score four points last weekend, it was missing its star attackman Josh Byrne and shot 9.3%.
While Carolina’s offense hasn’t been shooting exceptionally well, this was a far cry below its average shooting percentage of 25.3%. I expect some positive regression with Byrne back in the lineup, and I think we could see a similar result to last year’s 14-13 meeting.
Additionally, neither team is able to take their final point differential for granted, so expect the leading team to try and run up the score even if this turns into a blowout.
Bet this total to go over 22.5 at -110 on BetMGM.
I’m also targeting the Boston Cannons to finish with the most faceoff wins at +115 on DraftKings. Carolina’s starting faceoff specialist Nick Rowlett is out with an injury, so the Chaos picked up James Reilly from the player pool.
Reilly only has two career games under his belt and hasn’t seen game action in 14 months. His faceoff percentage during that sample size is just 36.5%, though he faced two of the top faceoff specialists in TD Ierlan and Trevor Baptiste to be fair.
In his first 2024 game, he’ll face Boston faceoff specialist Zac Tucci. Tucci has held his own against some of the bigger names this season and should be favored to win the faceoff battle on Friday.
Finally, I’m betting Marcus Holman to go over both his points and goals prop. Maryland held Holman to zero points for the first time since 2020, so this is a good bounce back spot for the Boston attackman, and I expect the Cannons to be creative with getting him involved as an off-ball shooter above the cage and in transition.
Holman has recorded four points or more in 13-of-21 (61.9%) games in this offense, including four against Carolina last year.
At -110 on DraftKings, the odds are good to bet him to go over 3.5 points. He’s also had a hat trick in 12-of-21 games (57.1%), so +120 on BetMGM is a good price to bet him to do so again this weekend.
