The final weekend in the Premier Lacrosse League regular season continues with a rematch between teams at opposite ends of the standings. The 7-2 New York Atlas are 2.5-point favorites in their game against the 1-8 Philadelphia Waterdogs and the total is 26.5 at most sportsbooks. Let’s dive into my best bets for Atlas vs Waterdogs this Saturday.
New York Atlas vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| New York (-2.5) Odds | Moneyline: -250 |
| Philadelphia (+2.5) Odds | Moneyline: +200 |
| Total | 26.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM
After last weekend’s blown cover, I was ready to finally stop betting on the Philadelphia Waterdogs. Yet, here we are a week later and I’m ready to bet the 1-8 Waterdogs one final time this season.
Philadelphia has nothing to play for but pride and New York doesn’t have much more to play for either with the top seed and a first-round bye all but locked up. The Atlas would need to lose by more than 17 points to relinquish the top seed in the East.
As bad as Philadelphia’s record is, they’ve been competitive in nearly every game this season, including their last meeting with New York. With the exception of their losses to Utah and Maryland earlier this month, Philadelphia’s issues have come in the second half. The Waterdogs have been very poor at making halftime adjustments, while New York has been one of the better teams in the second half of games. So, while Philadelphia is undervalued on the full game spread of -2.5 and as high as +200 on the moneyline, we’re going to back Philadelphia in the first half.
Philadelphia has either led, been tied, or trailed by just one goal at halftime in six of nine games this season. Meanwhile, New York has only led by two goals or more at half just three times this year. Furthermore, when these teams last played, Philadelphia actually led at half, 9-6. Philly has the ability to keep this game tight early and I think the odds are good enough to bet Waterdogs +1.5 in the first half at +100 on BetMGM. With their first half moneyline odds at +145, I also recommend a 0.4 unit on Philadelphia to be leading at half as well.
I’m also targeting a handful of player props.
Michael Sowers has been a lone bright spot on this offense, but I don’t like this matchup for the Philly speedster. Atlas defender Gavin Adler held Sowers to just one point and that lone goal was actually well defended by Adler, requiring a herculean effort from Sowers. His points prop on DraftKings is 4.5, a number he’s only gone over in seven of his last 22 games and none of those came against Adler and the Atlas. Even at -165 on DraftKings, the odds are good to bet Sowers to stay under 4.5 points on Saturday.
As for Atlas, I’m targeting three players in particular.
Even though Atlas is without right-handed attackman and one of New York’s main distributors in Connor Shellenberger, I’m expecting Xander Dickson to have a big game. He only had one goal against Philly in their earlier matchup, but had five shots and four of them were on cage. Furthermore, the Waterdogs are fairly banged up on defense and Dickson should be a prime candidate to exploit them. Dickson has a hat trick or better in six of nine games this season, so +100 on BetMGM is a good price to bet him to go over 2.5 goals.
I’m also targeting Logan McGovern, who should get the start on attack with Shellenberger out of the lineup. McGovern is a two-handed attackman who has already had success inverting behind the net in two games this season and had a goal against Philly in their earlier matchup. He should have plenty of chances to score early on Saturday so bet a 0.4 unit on him to score a first quarter goal at +195 on FanDuel.
Jake Stevens is another player who should have some early chances to score. Stevens is a versatile midfielder who has thrived from the faceoff wing. Stevens has eight goals in five games this season and most of them have come in transition off the faceoff. With Baptiste likely to dominate at the faceoff, there should be some quality chances for Stevens to score on the fast break. Bet a 0.25 unit on Stevens to score a first quarter goal at +200 on DraftKings.
Picks: Philadelphia Waterdogs +1.5 1st Half, Philadelphia Waterdogs ML 1st Half (0.4 unit), Michael Sowers Under 4.5 Points, Xander Dickson Over 2.5 Goals, Logan McGovern 1st Quarter Goal Scorer (0.4 unit), Jake Stevens 1st Quarter Goal Scorer (0.25 unit)
