The final game of the 2024 Premier Lacrosse League regular season will determine who wins the Western Conference and earns a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Utah Archers are 1.5-point favorites but the moneyline has moved closer to a pick ‘em following Utah midfielder Tom Schreiber’s injury on Friday night. The total was as high as 25.5 earlier in the week but is now 24.5 at most sportsbooks and as low as 23.5 on FanDuel. Let’s take a look at my favorite bets for this Western Conference showdown.
Utah Archers vs. Denver Outlaws
| Utah (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -110 |
| Denver (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -110 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via BetMGM
At the beginning of the season, not many people would have predicted the defending champion Utah Archers would be facing last year’s worst team with a first-round bye on the line. Yet, that’s exactly what we’re getting on Saturday night.
I’m staying away from picking a side in this one. I lean Utah to get it done despite the absence of Schreiber, yet I expect this game to be close throughout. Denver pulled off an incredible overtime comeback in the “Brennan O’Neill Game” back in Week 2, but these teams are quite different since we last saw them. Denver has since added Eric Law to its starting attack, but is also down two of its defenders in Jesse Bernhardt and Greg Weyl. Meanwhile, Utah has Graeme Hossack for this matchup but will be without Matt Moore and Schreiber.
I do think this game will be lower-scoring and liked the under at 25.5, but am not comfortable betting it now at 24.5 and recommend hoping for some early goals and betting the live under in the first half instead of playing the pregame under. While the first meeting between these teams saw 35 goals scored, it was played at a frantic pace with both teams trading goals in transition and on broken plays. I don’t expect that type of pace for this Western title bout.
Instead, we’ll start off with my favorite player prop for this game: Owen McElory over 12.5 saves at -120 on BetMGM.
McElroy has been streaky this season and his save totals don’t always paint the entire story. He had 15 saves against Utah when they last faced despite allowing 17 goals. Last week, McElroy had one of his best games of the season, playing great positional defense in net and holding Chaos to just four goals. That said, his save total was still just 12.
The reason I like McElroy to go over 12.5 in this game is because the volume of shots on goal should be high enough again for the Denver goalie to make a lot of saves. Nick Grill will be starting down at close defense for Denver and rookie Saam Olexo will take his place with Jake Piseno at long-stick midfield. This shake-up isn’t drastic, but could lead to a few more communication breakdowns on defense. Utah also has the fourth-best shots on goal percentage and had a season-high 31 shots on goal against Denver in their last meeting. Expect McElroy to see a lot of shots, but also make enough saves to go over 12.5 on Saturday.
I’m also betting the Outlaws to finish with the most faceoff wins and ground balls. Denver’s faceoff specialist Luke Wierman played great against Utah’s Mike Sisselberger in Week 2, winning 63.9% of faceoffs. While I don’t expect Sisselberger to do as poorly, he’s also coming off playing another game just 24 hours ago. I think fatigue could play a factor and Wierman has already proved he can handle Siss at the stripe.
I recommend betting a full unit on the Outlaws to finish with the most faceoffs at +130 on BetMGM and then a half unit on the Outlaws to record the most groundballs at +225 on BetMGMas well. Faceoff wins should lead to more groundballs and these odds should be shorter than more than this current number.
Picks: Owen McElroy Over 12.5 Saves, Denver Outlaws Most Faceoff Wins, Denver Outlaws Most Groundballs (0.5 Unit)
