The final Premier Lacrosse League game of Week 4 features the Philadelphia Waterdogs taking on the Carolina Chaos.
Philly is a slight favorite despite starting the season at 0-3. The total is currently 23.5 at most sportsbooks—the lowest of the weekend. Let’s take a look at which team I’m backing and which player I’m fading on Saturday night.
Philadelphia Waterdogs vs. Carolina Chaos
| Philadelphia (-1.5) Odds | ML: -115 |
| Carolina (+1.5) Odds | ML: -125 |
| Total | 23.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via bet365
Despite Philly losing its first three games, now is not the time to panic if you’re the Waterdogs. As I highlighted in my power rankings article, Philadelphia is closer to a top-three team than a bottom-three team, and its issues are being blown out of proportion.
The Waterdogs' lack of a dedicated faceoff specialist in their first three games was the easy issue to point to, but Coach Bill Tierney signed rookie Alec Stathakis to take draws for the Waterdogs going forward. Fans should temper their expectations for Stathakis in his first PLL game, but his presence should, at a minimum, alleviate the Waterdogs' possession disparity and more importantly prevent fastbreak chances off the draw — an area of weakness through three games.
Philly has also suffered from some two-point variance by allowing five two-pointers and failing to score a single goal beyond the arc this season. In fact, the Waterdogs have found the back of the net either the same amount or more times than their opponent in all three games, but ended up on the losing end due to the two-ball. I think this is a great buy-low spot, even with them being favored.
While the Chaos are strong defensively, the Waterdogs have the offensive weapons and ball movement to exploit Carolina. Yet, the key matchup will be how Philadelphia’s defense fares against Carolina’s offense — I anticipate the Waterdogs will be up to the challenge.
While Carolina’s turnover issues have gotten a bit better each game, it is still a concern for me against a Philly defense that leads the league in caused turnovers per game with 10.7. Ultimately, I expect the Waterdogs to be able to build and maintain enough of a lead to get their first win of the season and cover the 1.5-point spread. Bet Philadelphia -1.5 at +110 on BetRivers or bet365 (play to +100).
I’m also fading Chaos attackman Josh Byrne on Saturday night. Byrne’s points prop is currently 4.5 at most sportsbooks, but he’s stayed under this mark in all but one of his last 11 games and all but two of his 21 games dating back to 2022.
While Byrne certainly has game-breaking ability, he’s being asked to shoulder a young Carolina offense and will draw Philly’s top cover defender in Ben Randall. Ultimately this line is too high in what could be a low-scoring game.
Bet Byrne to stay under 4.5 points at -155 on BetMGM.
Picks: Philadelphia Waterdogs -1.5 & Josh Byrne Under 4.5 Points.
