Premier Lacrosse League Week 5 Friday Picks: PLL Best Bets for Boston Cannons vs California Redwoods

Week 5 in the Premier Lacrosse League kicks off with this weekend’s hometown team Boston Cannons hosting the California Redwoods.

Boston is a 2.5-point favorite against the winless Redwoods, and the total is listed at 24.5 at FanDuel.

Let’s take a look at my PLL best bets for Cannons-Redwoods on Friday, July 5.

Boston Cannons vs. California Redwoods

Odds via FanDuel

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The Cannons enter their first of two games of this weekend following a 14-9 win over Archers that saw them score five total two-point goals. While I think they’re a bit overvalued on the spread and moneyline, I’m not ready to fade them against a California team I power rate as the worst in the league.

Instead, I’m targeting the total of 24.5.

While we’ve seen some personnel changes on both sides of the ball since last season, both games in 2023 went over 24.5 with an average of 28.5 combined goals scored in each meeting. I expect another high-scoring affair between these two teams.

The Cannons offense hasn’t been as prolific as last season, but they match up extremely well with this Redwoods defense. California attempted to defend Denver last week by sliding early to Brennan O’Neill and while they were able to keep O’Neill mostly off the score sheet, the Outlaws picked them a part off-ball.

If the Redwoods try a similar strategy with Asher Nolting, it could be a long night for the Redwoods. Still, even if they go against their defensive DNA and choose to slide less, Boston should still be able to exploit them with their cast of dodgers.

While we may not see as many two-pointers go, Boston should be able to score 15+ on California on Friday night.

As for the Redwoods, their offense was uncharacteristically bad last weekend. Rob Pannell was held to zero points for the first time in a PLL game. California was careless with the ball and turned the ball over often before settling into their offensive sets. Overall, it was mostly a disaster with California only finding the back of the net six times.

While I’m not sure we’re going to see a complete turnaround from this offense, I do expect some positive changes, with Chris Gray being a focal point this weekend. Gray may have only finished with two assists last week, but he generated quality looks as a dodger and passer despite playing midfield for most of the game. I expect California to get him more involved, whether that’s more runs at attack or invert opportunities behind the net.

California has the personnel to exploit Boston off-ball, an area of weakness for this Cannons defense so far this season. If Gray, Rob Pannell and even Ryder Garnsey can win their matchups from behind the net, California should be able to generate more open looks above the cage for Wes Berg, Garrett Degnon and Charlie Bertrand.

Trust Redwoods to do their part in helping Boston push this total over 24.5 in what should be a high-scoring affair on Friday night.

I mentioned Berg as a candidate who could thrive on Friday night and recommend betting him to go over 2.5 points. Berg has had three or more points in seven of his last 15 games, but has been extremely efficient, shooting 83.3% through three games. He had hat tricks in both games against Boston last year and should be able to exploit the Cannons defense again even with their new cast of characters on defense. Bet Berg to record three or more points at -102 on FanDuel.

I also expect Asher Nolting to have a ton of success in this game. California simply doesn’t have the type of defender that can guard Nolting and he should be able to attack the Redwoods both as a scorer and distributor in this game. Nolting’s points prop is 3.5 on FanDuel, and while it’s juiced to -174, he’s gone over this mark in 10 of his last 16 games, including both against the Redwoods last season. Trust Nolting to have a major impact in this one and bet him to go over his points prop.

With both Jonathan Donville and Pat Kavanagh out with injury and Matt Campbell or Ryan Drenner likely drawing the long pole matchup, I also think Chris Aslanian has a chance to replicate his success from last game and find the back of the net early.

While Matt Kavanagh being active could mean less runs for Aslanian on the lower left-side, he’s still a two-handed dodger who should get plenty of chances as both a dodger and shooter above the cage against a relatively weak Redwoods short-stick unit. With odds of +255 on FanDuel, I think there’s value in betting a 0.4 unit on Aslanian to score a first quarter goal.

Picks: Over 24.5, Wes Berg Over 2.5 Points, Asher Nolting Over 3.5 Points, Chris Aslanian 1st Quarter Goal Scorer (0.4 unit)

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