Premier Lacrosse League Week 7 Friday Picks: PLL Best Bets for Carolina Chaos vs Maryland Whipsnakes

Despite now being in different conferences, the Carolina Chaos vs. Maryland Whipsnakes is still a fierce rivalry between two of the most consistently successful Premier Lacrosse League teams. Last season marked the first time a PLL championship game didn’t feature either the Chaos or Whipsnakes and both teams are looking to make another playoff run this Fall. Let’s take a look at my favorite bets for tonight’s rivalry game.

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Carolina Chaos vs. Maryland Whipsnakes

Odds via ESPN Bet

The game is close to a pick ‘em and the total is 23.5 at almost every sportsbook. The total is tempting given both the two starting goaltenders and inconsistent showings we’ve seen from both evolving offenses. Yet, I think the value lies in backing Andy Towers-led Chaos in a bounce-back spot.

The Chaos started 2-0 but dropped their last three games before going on a two-week hiatus thanks to their bye week and the all-star break. Despite being 2-3, Carolina has lost to three of the top four teams in my power rankings and boasts one of the best defenses in the league. While Maryland is well-coached and shown some real bright spots, I think Carolina matches up well against them, particularly on offense with attackman Matt Rambo out.

Carolina’s offense has struggled with turnovers at times, but so has Maryland and the Chaos have had now two weeks to prepare. One of Maryland’s biggest weaknesses has been at short-stick defensive midfield and Carolina’s offensive midfielders should be able to exploit that unit on Friday. I also expect the Whips offense to struggle against Blaze Riorden and Co. The Chaos defense is tied for the fewest scores allowed per game at 11.2 and has allowed more than 11 goals just once—two of the record-setting New York Atlas offense. Expect Carolina to snap their losing streak and bet them to win outright at -110 on Caesars or ESPN Bet.

I’m also targeting two game props.

Joe Nardella has faced off well since returning from an injury that caused him to miss last season, facing off at 69.8%. As a result, the Whipsnakes are -1000 to finish with the most faceoffs AND most ground balls. Yet, faceoff wins don’t necessarily equate to ground balls. For example, Nardella went 18-for-32 but only won five ground balls against New York and Maryland finished with just six more ground balls. Carolina to finish with the most ground balls is +600 on DraftKings (implied probability of 15%) and that’s an extreme overreaction considering Carolina finished with just one less ground ball when these teams last played despite facing off at 47%. 

Bet a 0.2 unit on Chaos to have the most ground balls.

I also recommend betting Carolina to finish with the most shots at +400. While Maryland is again rightly favored in this category, this is once again an overreaction. Despite being outshot in all five games, Carolina’s offense has steadily increased its shot production and again a 20% implied probability is too low. Bet a 0.3 unit on Chaos to finish with the most shots.

I also like three player props for this game.

Blaze Riorden has yet to make more than 11 saves this season, but has saved 14 or more in eight of the last 12 games that he’s played fully. I expect some positive regression for the three-time PLL goaltender of the year, especially against a Whipsnakes offense still trying to find consistency. Bet Riorden to go over 13.5 saves at -120 on DraftKings or ESPN Bet.

I’m also targeting Josh Byrne’s goals prop. He’s gone over 1.5 goals in eight of his last 11 games, including scoring twice in the lone game he played against the Whipsnakes last season. In fact, Byrne likely would have had more but a third goal was overturned for landing in the crease before the ball broke the plane and he left mid-way through the second half with an injury. Despite the juice, -162 is a good price to bet Byrne to score twice against Maryland.

Finally, I’m fading Tucker Dordevic in his return from injury. Dordevic will definitely boost a Maryland midfield looking for an identity, but 2.5 goals is a high line for a player who’s gone over this just twice in 11 career games. Furthermore, Dordevic only recorded one goal in two games against the Chaos last season. Even at -174, these are good odds to bet Dordevic under 2.5 goals in his first game of the season.

Chaos vs Whipsnakes Picks

Carolina Chaos ML
Chaos Most Ground Balls (0.2 unit)
Chaos Most Shots (0.3 unit)
Blaze Riorden Over 13.5 Saves
Josh Byrne Over 1.5 Goals
Tucker Dordevic Under 2.5 Goals