The Premier Lacrosse League kicks returns to action with its throwback weekend in Fairfield, Connecticut. The first game features a matchup between the 2-2 Denver Outlaws and 1-4 Philadelphia Waterdogs.
Let’s dive into my PLL picks and predictions for Outlaws-Waterdogs on Friday, July 19.
Denver Outlaws vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| Denver (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +130 |
| Philadelphia (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -166 |
| Total | 24 |
| Time | Friday · 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Philadelphia enters as a decent-sized favorite against a Denver team that is coming off their worst loss of the season and only managed to score four points. The total ranges from 23.5 to 24.5, and while I think we’ll see this game stay under, I have another way I’m targeting this game.
This week, DraftKings sportsbook is offering first half lines as well and the first half total is 12.5. I think we could see a defensive battle between these two teams out of the gate.
Denver has stayed under this mark in all four games and the offense could still take some time get going as they integrate newly-acquired veteran Eric Law. Philly’s games have stayed under 12.5 in the first half in three of five games, but it was nearly four before Zac Tucci’s last-second two-pointer in the first half of their first game against Boston pushed the total over.
Both teams are strong defensively and both offenses have had slow starts in most of their games this season. Bet under 12.5 in the first half at -115 on DraftKings.
I’m also betting Dillon Ward to go over 12.5 saves. Ward has surpassed this mark in 10 of his last 13 games, so -125 is a great price to bet him to stop 13 or more shots on Friday night.
With Liam Byrnes out of the lineup and some reshuffling on defense, Ward might see a bit more rubber than usual. Yet, that should only mean more saves when considering Denver is second-to-last in shooting percentage at 23.2%.
While I expect less scoring, I do think Jack Hannah will find the back of the net in the first quarter. Hannah has scored a goal in nine of his last 12 games, and I expect him to be shooting early and often. He’s averaged 6.2 shots through those 12 games and has had nine and eight in his last two games.
His former Denver University and current Philadelphia coach Bill Tierney has given him the green light as a shooter and he should have plenty of chances in the first quarter.
Bet a half unit on him to score in the first quarter at +195.
Finally, it may seem chalky, but I like Eric Law to go over 1.5 goals on Friday. While Law was on a different roster last season, he recorded at least two goals in eight of 11 games, including hat tricks in both games against the Waterdogs.
Law should fit into this offense nicely as a close-range, off-ball finisher — something Denver has been lacking for two seasons. While he hasn’t had much time to acclimate, the fit should be seamless and he should have plenty of chances, particularly against a Philly team that has been prone to giving up transition chances.
Bet Law to score at least twice at +108.
Picks: First Half Under 12.5, Dillon Ward Over 12.5 Saves, Jack Hannah First Quarter Goal Scorer (0.5 unit), Eric Law Over 1.5 Goals
