The Premier Lacrosse League heads to San Diego and the first matchup features the two teams with rich history in the PLL’s predecessor, Major League Lacrosse. The Boston Cannons are 1.5-point favorites against the Denver Outlaws and the total is 25.5 at most sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look at my favorite bets for Saturday’s showdown between the Outlaws and Cannons.
Denver Outlaws vs. Boston Cannons
| Denver (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +145 |
| Philadelphia (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -175 |
| Total | 25.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds via BetMGM
While Boston’s defense and Denver’s offense are vastly different from a year ago, the Cannons defense and Outlaws defense have remained largely unchanged from 2023. When these teams last played, the Cannons came away with a 14-13 win, but the Denver defense actually played a lot better than the final score indicated.
Denver’s starter last year was Sean Sconone and he had one of the worst outings of his career, making only five saves on 18 shots on goal. This time around, Owen McElroy will get the start against Boston and the former Georgetown netminder is coming off an impressive game that saw him stop 59% of the shots he faced against a lethal Philadelphia offense.
Additionally, the Outlaws were very undisciplined when guarding Boston’s star attackman Asher Nolting last year, allowing Nolting to get switches that led to many matchups with short-stick defensive midfielders. Despite recording five points, Nolting had just one point when defended by JT Giles-Harris. I trust Denver to gameplan better for Nolting this time around with Giles-Harris defending Nolting the most on Saturday. Giles-Harris currently has the lowest opposing shooting percentage among long pole defenders at 11.9%.
Slowing down Nolting could be the key to also limiting Boston’s two-point threats. Nolting’s ability to draw slides and find open teammates beyond the arc has helped the Cannons become the leader in two-point goals this season, averaging two per game. While Boston’s two-point success seems sustainable after six games, I think it’s led to Boston being a bit overvalued in the market. If there’s a team that can match Boston in the two-pointer department, it’s Denver. The Outlaws sit behind Boston, averaging 1.2 two-pointers per game, but have had a few notable 14.9-yard goals that were very close to counting for two points.
There are other areas where Denver matches up well with Boston. The Outlaws are converting on 45% of their power play chances and face the league’s most-penalized team that is also just fifth in penalty kill percentage at 59.1%. Denver’s addition of Eric Law has also opened up this offense, giving opposing defenses an off-ball threat to account for at all times—an area where Boston tends to struggle.
Finally, Garrett Epple has had a ton of success limiting opposing team’s star attackmen this season, but this week he’ll face Brennan O’Neill, who’s actually bigger in stature than the 230-pound, 6’1” Epple. I expect O'Neill to have more success than most have against Epple, whether it's dodging to score or assisting his teammates.
While Boston should still be favored in this game, I don’t think it deserves to be this heavy of favorites against a Denver team that can match its scoring output. I expect Denver to keep it close throughout and recommend betting them to cover as 1.5-point underdogs at +105 on BetMGM. There’s a chance the Outlaws pull off the upset all together so I also like betting a half unit on the moneyline at +145 on BetMGM as well.
I mentioned Eric Law as a potential x-factor in this game. The veteran had two goals on five shots in his 2024 Outlaws debut last week and I think this is a good matchup to bet him to do so again. Last week, we successfully bet Law over 1.5 goals and I’m going back to the well while we’re still getting favorable odds of +100. Law has had at least two goals in nine of his last 12 games and I recommend betting on him to score twice again on Saturday.
While I’ll be very pro-Denver in this one, I do like Boston attackman Pat Kavanagh to score a first quarter goal at +255. Kavanagh will start at attack for the first time this season ironically in place of his brother Matt. These odds are too long for the shifty attackman who should have plenty of chances to score in the opening period. Bet a half unit on Pat Kavanagh to find the back of the next in the first quarter.
