We get a new version of the New York-Philadelphia sports rivalry when the Atlas face the Waterdogs on ABC at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. The 5-2 Atlas face the 1-5 Waterdogs in a Week 8 matchup with major Premier Lacrosse League playoff implications.
Let’s dive into my PLL best bets for Atlas vs. Waterdogs on Sunday, July 28.
New York Atlas vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| New York (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -200 |
| Philadelphia (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +165 |
| Total | 27.5 |
| Time | Sunday · 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds via BetMGM
Despite losing to Boston last week, New York is heavily favored against Philadelphia and the total sits at 27.5. The Atlas boast one of the most prolific offenses in PLL history, but Maryland and recently Boston have both proven that New York is mortal. On the flip side, I’m still not convinced that the Waterdogs are one of the worst teams in the league, but they’re being priced like they are.
Philly may be 1-5, but all but one of their losses have been by two goals or less, and their 14-10 loss to Boston saw a late empty-net two-point goal ice the game. The Waterdogs have an uphill battle to get back in the playoff hunt, but that doesn’t mean they aren't dangerous with a ton of upset potential.
Philadelphia leads the league in caused turnovers per game with 8.3 and have the ability to disrupt this New York offense that has looked so effective through seven games. Jeff Teat has been held to two points or fewer just four times in his four-year career and one of those times was last season against the Waterdogs. While I’m not expecting Philly to completely neutralize Teat or hold New York to under 10 points, I do think they can give Atlas one of its toughest tests so far this season.
Philly’s offense has gone through scoring droughts during games, but it is still one of the most lethal on paper and has the ability to match New York’s scoring output. The Atlas defense has also been vulnerable and their 12.7 scores against average is the third worst in the league behind only Maryland and Denver. They’ve allowed 12 goals or more in all but one game and their underwhelming play this year has been overshadowed by their historic offense.
Transition defense in particular has been an issue for New York, and the Dogs have two-way midfielders that can convert defensive stops into transition chances against the Atlas.
There are a variety of different ways you can bet on the undervalued Waterdogs. If you want to play it safe, Philadelphia +2.5 is out there on some sportsbooks — though it’s heavily juiced at -140. Since I’m confident in Philly’s upset potential, I recommend a full unit on both Philadelphia +1.5 at +115 and Philadelphia moneyline at +165 on BetMGM. This is the Waterdogs bounce back spot we’ve been waiting for and it’s time to swing for the fences.
One big weakness of the Waterdogs that Atlas will likely exploit is their struggles defending the two-point arc. Philly has allowed the most two-point goals per game at 1.67 per game and 10 total this year. Expect players like Bryan Costabile, Danny Logan, Dox Aitken, Myles Jones or any of the Atlas long poles to not be shy when given an opportunity to shoot a two-pointer.
While defending New York’s deep threats will be the biggest priority, I also expect Philly to try and fight fire with fire and generate some more shots from deep themselves. New York has played one more game than Philly, but they’re tied with the Waterdogs with 10 two-point goals allowed.
We saw Philly draw up some more two-point looks last week, with Connor Kelly and Zach Currier scoring from beyond the arc against Denver. Jack Hannah can also shoot from range and Jake Carraway and Ryan Conrad are two other midfielders with range that are back in the lineup this week. Bet over 1.5 two-point goals to be scored at -113.
I’m also betting Dillon Ward to go over 12.5 saves at -128. Ward has only gone over this mark in half of his games this season but if we go back to last season, he’s had 13 or more saves in 10 of his last 14 starts, including the most recent game against Atlas.
New York should enjoy more possessions thanks to faceoff specialist Trevor Baptiste, average 44 shots per game and lead the league in shots on goal percentage at 67.9%. So, Ward should see a ton of shots on cage in this one and I trust him to make enough saves to go over 12.5.
Picks: Philadelphia Waterdogs +1.5, Philadelphia Waterdogs ML, Over 1.5 Two-Point Goals, Dillon Ward Over 12.5 Saves
