The California Redwoods face the Denver Outlaws in a game that could end up keeping one of these teams out of the playoffs completely. Denver is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 24.5 across sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at my three best bets for the Redwoods vs. Outlaws Western Conference showdown today.
California Redwoods vs. Denver Outlaws
| California (+1.5) Odds | Moneyline: +125 |
| Denver (-1.5) Odds | Moneyline: -150 |
| Total | 24.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via BetMGM
When these teams last faced, Denver secured a 13-8 victory over California. Yet, a lot has changed since these teams last met. California may still not look like a playoff contender, but the defense has built some chemistry and played fairly well despite only having two wins to show for it. Additionally, Chris Gray has been playing his natural position of attack and the offense has at least shown some bright spots in their last two games.
Meanwhile, the Outlaws acquired Eric Law and he’s been a key cog in the Denver offense since rejoining his former team. On the flipside, Denver lost its central communicator on defense Jesse Bernhardt to a shoulder injury last week and has a decision to make in regards to goaltender. Owen McElroy has played fairly well as the starter, but was pulled last week in favor of last year’s starter, Sean Sconone. Neither moves the needle either way, but their styles are certainly different.
I expect Denver to squeak out a win, but there isn’t enough of an edge to bet them on the spread or moneyline. While the total is high for a game that finished with just 21 points despite three two-point goals, I actually think 24.5 is a sharp number given the absence of Bernhardt and Redwoods’ recent success generating offense off transition.
Instead, I’m targeting three player props.
The first prop I’m betting is Chris Gray to score a first quarter goal. Since Gray began starting on attack, he’s had five goals in three games and is averaging six shots per game. With Jesse Bernhardt out of the lineup, Gray could pose as a mismatch for this Denver defense. Will Greg Weyl defend Gray in Weyl’s first PLL game since July 8, 2023 or will Denver opt to move JT Giles-Harris off Rob Pannell and onto Gray? Neither is an ideal scenario with Bernhardt out of the lineup.
Denver has also been prone to giving up goals off the faceoff and in transition and Gray could be a prime candidate to capitalize on this. TD Ierlan won 72.7% of his faceoffs and a handful let to fast breaks. California has also recently demonstrated the tendency to push in transition off defensive stops in its two most-recent games and I expect them to do the same on Saturday. Bet Chris Gray first quarter anytime goal scorer at +144 on FanDuel.
I’m also targeting both Brennan O’Neill and Rob Pannell’s shots props on BetMGM, both of which are set at 4.5.
O’Neill has recorded five shots or more in five of six games, averaging 7.2 shots per game, taking eight in each of his past two games. When he last faced California, he took five shots, but I expect him to continue to be more aggressive like in his most recent outings.
Meanwhile, Pannell has gone over this in 17 of his last 19 games and is averaging 7.7 shots per game in 2024. While Pannell was blanked the last time he faced Denver, he took 10 shots—his second-highest amount this season—and the absence of Bernhardt could lead to more scoring chances for RP3.
Due to the great odds on both, I recommend betting two units on each of these shot props.
Now, it’s important to only bet these props on BetMGM since these are shot props, not shots on goal props. For example, while O’Neill averages 7.2 shots per game, he’s only averaging 4.2 shots on goal per game. DraftKings is offering similar lines, but for shots on goal — a very important distinction to note.
Picks: Chris Gray First Quarter Goal Scorer, Brennan O’Neill Over 4.5 Shots (2 units), Rob Pannell Over 4.5 Shots (2 units)
