The Premier Lacrosse League travels to Baltimore this weekend and kicks off with the hometown Maryland Whipsnakes facing their eastern rival in the Philadelphia Waterdogs.
The game is a pick'em at most sportsbooks and the total ranges from 24.5 to 25.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Maryland Whipsnakes vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| Maryland (-1.5) | Moneyline (-120) |
| Philadelphia (+1.5) | Moneyline (-110) |
| Total | 25 |
| Time | Saturday · 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Philadelphia Waterdogs might be the best one-win team in the history of pro field lacrosse. Whether it’s two-point variance, shots hitting the pipe or flukey plays at the end of quarters, the Waterdogs have appeared snake-bitten far too many times this season.
They’ve either been tied or had a lead at halftime in all but two of their games and have been tied or had the lead in the fourth quarter in all but one of those games. Despite their six losses, their goal differential is -6.
Now, there have been legitimate issues with this team. Their lack of a faceoff specialist held the team back in its first three games, and while Alec Stathakis has helped, it still hasn't quite managed to eliminate its issues at the stripe.
The Waterdogs given up far too many two-point goals, which has directly resulted in half of their losses this season. The transition defense has been noticeably worse this season and the absence of Liam Byrnes hasn’t helped.
And likely the biggest issue is that they’re tied with California — the other team currently outside of the playoff bubble — with the worst team shooting percentage at 23.7%.
Yet, this team still has the potential to beat anybody in the league, and that’s been evident in their one-goal losses to the three teams currently at the top of the standings.
So, while Maryland may have two more wins — including one already against Philadelphia — this Waterdogs team is still being undervalued because of their record.
First off, the Waterdogs were playing their second game in 24 hours and played without a faceoff specialist when these teams last met. While they didn’t necessarily outplay Maryland, the main reason for their loss in Week 3 was due to poor transition defense and complacency on offense that allowed Maryland to hang around and eventually win in overtime.
Philly still matches up well with this Maryland team. Much of the Whipsnakes’ success this season has come in transition and from two-man play on the wings.
Philly defended both Denver and New York well in settled situations in its past two games and it has the ability to neutralize the type of offensive sets that Maryland has had success with recently.
While Byrnes is still out due to injury and Marcus Hudgins is also out of the lineup this week, I think rookie AJ Mercurio will slot in nicely as a physical defender who can potentially guard Zed Williams and also push transition off of defensive stops.
Philly also has the offensive weapons who can attack Maryland’s weaker stable of short-stick defensive midfielders, and its urgency to push transition against New York last week was a good sign of what we could see more of against a Whipsnakes team that's also struggled to defend transition.
Ultimately, this is a good time to fade a Maryland team coming off a win and bet Philadelphia to notch another outright victory at -110 on Caesars.
I’m also betting Kieran McArdle to have four points or more. McArdle had three points against Maryland when they last faced, but he's been consistently shooting 7-to-9 shots per game and will be a big part of Philly’s game plan.
McArdle has gone over 3.5 points just three times this season, but he went over in 10-of-20 games dating back to last year. This is a good buy-low spot on McArdle, who's been held to two points or fewer in back-to-back weeks.
Bet McArdle over 3.5 points at -120 on bet365.
I also recommend betting 0.4 unit on Mike Chanenchuk to score a two-point goal at +290 on FanDuel. Maryland’s main threat from deep — Tucker Dordevic — returned to the lineup in the Whipsnakes’ last two games, and while he had three two-pointers in their last game, I think his presence will actually open up more opportunities for Chanenchuk.
Philly will undoubtedly prioritize defending Dordevic from beyond the arc and that should open up opportunities for him to draw a double team and generate open looks for Chanenchuk.
Chanenchuk hasn’t been as productive from range in recent seasons, but the 34-year-old is still shooting 27% from beyond the arc, and the Waterdogs have been prone to giving up two-pointers all season.
Chanenchuk scored a two-pointer against Philly when these teams last played and has averaged 1.6 two-point shots per game.
Now, goaltender Dillon Ward has been partially responsible for Philly’s two-pointer issue, and we could see backup Matt DeLuca in net instead this time around.
Still, Philly’s issues defending the two-ball extend beyond goaltending, and there's still value on Channy no matter who starts in net.
