Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Odds
Bayern Munich Odds | -223 |
RB Leipzig Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-100 / -115) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-200 / +150) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The most consequential match of the entire Bundesliga season is set for Saturday as Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig. Bayern are clinging to a one-point lead over Borussia Dortmund for the league title race with two matches to play. Dortmund travel to Augsburg and host Mainz in the final two matches of the season, and this is the best possible chance left for Bayern to slip up and the title to swing. By my power ratings, this is also a matchup of the top two teams in the Bundesliga.
Bayern settled for a 1-1 draw on the road in the other league meeting between these two teams, a matchup where Leipzig manager Marco Rose successfully prevented Bayern from getting out into transition opportunities and held them under 1 xG created. Leipzig are also in a battle to secure a place in next year's Champions League and could lose their cushion over fifth-placed Freiburg with a defeat on Saturday.
Bayern Munich Facing Tough Offensive Task
Bayern returned to top form in their 6-0 win against Schalke last week, but one result doesn't change that the lack of a true central striker makes them a more high variance attack, capable of lagging behind its elite attacking production more often.
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is doubtful to return for this match, and the performance of Thomas Muller last week likely means that Sadio Mané will be on the bench again. Serge Gnabry is Bayern's leading goal scorer with 13 goals this year in the league, but a Gnabry-Muller-Jamal Musiala-Leroy Sané attacking front four doesn't really have a focal point to play through or generate clear chances from the center of the penalty area.
For example, Bayern created 89 xG in 34 matches in Germany last season. Through 32 this year, Thomas Tuchel's side has produced just 72 xG. That doesn't seem like a huge drop off, but 2.61 xGF per match to 2,25 xGF per match is quite significant. It's even more significant because Robert Lewandowski finished at such an elite clip relative to xG for the last two seasons.
Tuchel wants to exert control on the match through possession at an extreme level, and Bayern's possession level has increased marginally since he took over for Julian Nagelsmann. He's managed 10 games and Bayern has failed to score more than two goals in eight of those 10 matches. Now facing an underrated Leipzig defense, it will be much harder for Bayern to separate on Saturday.
RB Leipzig Know Tactical Keys
RB Leipzig's transition into a full on possession-based and slow build up side started under Julian Nagelsmann, briefly paused when Jesse Marsch was in charge and then switched back to possession based under Marco Rose. The question for Leipzig is whether or not they're willing to be more direct when facing a fierce press to prevent high turnover after high turnover. Manchester City exposed their stubborn build up approach in the Champions League second leg. Bayern could absolutely do the same under Tuchel's counter-pressing system on Saturday.
Leipzig's defense is still pretty active itself — Die Roten Bullen rank fourth in passes per defensive action and allow the fourth-lowest pass completion rate allowed in the Bundesliga. Because of this aggression, they can sometimes be caught out, hence why Rose's side ranks just sixth in total number of big scoring chances conceded.
Despite that, Leipzig aren't going to let Bayern totally dominate them or tilt the field on them. It's a stable defense with more than enough midfield ball winning to hold up against the central midfield runs Bayern like to make into the penalty area. Gvardiol's return is a major key, but this is also a defense that is top three in both final third entries and box entries allowed. No defense allows fewer shots per 90 in Germany, and yet this total remains at 3.5.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Pick
These two teams have played twice this season — Bayern won the first 5-3 in a wide-open and back and forth affair that featured a lot of high pressing and transition opportunities. That match had very different stakes given that it was a DFL-Supercup match and not a league one. The second meeting that ended 1-1 under Marco Rose in January is more what I'm expecting in this contest. Leipzig are second-best in just about every defensive category in Germany and the return of Gvardiol is key for stabilizing the defense as a whole.
Leipzig have had their defensive meltdowns this season — a 7-0 loss to Manchester City and a recent 3-0 loss to Mainz were puzzling — but this is the same defense that held Dortmund to 1.4 combined xG in two spring meetings and is one of four to keep Bayern under 1 xG all season.
I'd bet the under 1.5 in the first half and split it with full game under 3.5 goals.
