With soccer returning in Spain, The Action Network is back to cover the La Liga betting action, starting with match day 2 this weekend.
The first play kicks off on the island on Friday night, with Mallorca hosting Villarreal in a game where I’m backing the home side. Meanwhile, I also like Real Sociedad at the Estadio Reale Arena on Saturday for my second bet against Celta Vigo.
Closing out the article, the reigning champions Barcelona play Cádiz at the Spotify Camp Nou on Sunday, which should follow the trends of low-scoring games.
We are still in the learning stages of the season with these squads, but I do feel there is excellent betting value to attack with our best bets.
La Liga Odds & Picks
| Mallorca Odds | +190 |
| Villarreal Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +150 / -188 |
Mallorca had a fantastic 2022-23 campaign, finishing in the top half of the league table in ninth. One key reason for the strong position was the team’s form at home.
On the island last season, Los Bermellones picked up 35 of their 50 total points, which was the sixth-best mark in the Spanish top flight.
They also stood up against the better opposition in the division, losing just two of nine matches at home against sides that finished in the top 10.
So, this leads me to my single game parlay, pairing Mallorca double chance and the total falling under four goals at -125.
If you look at the last campaign, this cashed in 63% of Mallorca’s home games, including 6-of-9 against top-half teams.
Meanwhile, Villarreal lost multiple key players from the club this summer, with Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea), Pau Torres (Aston Villa) and Samuel Chukwueze (AC Milan) all sold in the transfer window.
For a club that had a -4.4 xGDiff on the road against top 10 sides, I like the idea of opposing them in this spot.
Pick: SGP – Mallorca Double Chance & Under 4 (-125)
| Real Sociedad Odds | -138 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +137 / -175 |
In my second play of the weekend, I’m backing the home side again, where I expect Real Sociedad to get their season on track with a win over Celta Vigo.
Sociedad were dominant at home against lesser opposition in the last campaign, boasting a +9.4 xGDiff and holding bottom-half teams to just 0.58 xG per 90 minutes.
In fact, only Barcelona surrendered fewer xG at home last season compared to Imanol Alguacil’s side in 2022-23.
The visitors made a splash over the summer by bringing in veteran manager Rafael Benítez. However, I still think there is still a large gap in talent between these two sides.
Benítez’s style will be to be compact defensively and allow Sociedad to have plenty of the ball, which could make this moneyline play a good pair with a total falling under three or four goals.
I make this playable to -145, so I’ll keep it simple for my best bet.
Pick: Real Sociedad ML (-138)
| Barcelona Odds | -500 |
| Cádiz Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
In the opening weekend of the season, 7-of-10 games finished with two goals or less, with only one fixture exceeding a trio of goals.
When I saw the opportunity to take a total of under three, I had to jump at the opportunity even if it does include the mighty Barcelona.
It is easy to forget that only three home games for Xavi’s team went over this total in the league, which includes all but one against the bottom 10 sides.
The trends were very similar for the visitors, where 16 of Cádiz’s 19 road league games had three or fewer goals.
What also helps us here is the fact that Brazilian winger Raphinha, who has been tipped to replace Ousmane Dembélé, picked up a red card in the previous match.
Dembélé's departure from the club has left a hole in Xavi’s squad, and I just don’t believe the former champions will be firing on all cylinders this early in the season.
