Spanish soccer has reached the final weekend of the season, and the Action Network has you covered with our La Liga Best Bets for match day 38.
Unfortunately, there is not much drama left in the campaign with the European and relegation places all confirmed, but this doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value on the board.
Following the opener on Friday, I have a pair of games circled on Saturday, including Rayo Vallecano hosting a wounded Athletic Club side. Meanwhile, I like the league champion to roll in the final match of the day in the capital.
I’ll wrap up my La Liga predictions on Sunday on the island by backing Las Palmas. So, let’s break down the action of the final weekend of fixtures in Spain.
La Liga Predictions
| Rayo Vallecano Odds | +190 |
| Athletic Club Odds | +137 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
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In my first pick of the week, this comes down to the key attacking pieces that will not be available for the visitors.
Both Gorka Guruzeta and Iñaki Williams are expected to be out for Athletic Club. This duo has played a direct role in over 58 percent of the team’s league goals, combining for 26 goals and eight assists.
This is already a side that has won just two of its last seven La Liga matches away from home, and it is an attack that is not as dangerous on the road.
At home this season, Bilbao average 1.81 expected goals and 3.37 big chances per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. However, those totals drop to 0.97 xG and 1.53 big chances on the road.
As for the host, Rayo Vallecano have avoided defeat in six of the last seven at the Estadio de Vallecas, which includes defeating Real Betis and drawing Real Madrid.
Once you add the fact that Rayo only lost three of nine at home against top 10 teams, I like Los Franjirrojos to get a result here.
Pick: Rayo Vallecano PK (+110)
| Real Madrid Odds | -250 |
| Real Betis Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
Yes, Real Madrid have already wrapped up the league title, and the Champions League final is next weekend. This still hasn’t stopped Carlo Ancelotti’s team from playing well against Spanish opposition, especially at home.
In the last seven games at the Santiago Bernabéu, Los Blancos have outscored opponents 23-3, recording shutout wins in six of those outings. This has also included multiple fixtures with what most would say is the backup squad.
Similar to the first best bet, there is also a key missing piece for the road team. Isco picked up a recent injury that will keep him out of this finale.
To explain his importance, he was named the Man of the Match in 19-of-28 games he started in this season. This goes along with his eight goals and five assists that will be missing on Saturday.
Could Madrid be looking ahead to the weekend? It is a possibility, but I can’t turn down this juicy price.
For a bonus play, I also like Arda Güler at +200 odds as an anytime scorer. He has scored in four of his last five games, thriving with the second unit for Madrid.
Pick: Real Madrid – Win to Nil (+200)
| Las Palmas Odds | +140 |
| Alavés Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -138 |
The final best bet falls on Sunday’s contest on the island, where I do expect the home team to end a solid campaign with a victory.
I just really don’t trust this Alavés squad on the road. It is a team that has lost four of its last five away from home, outscored by nine goals and failing to find the back of the net in all of those losses.
The primary reason behind the struggles on the road is the jump in the defensive numbers. At home, Alavés have allowed averages of 1.63 big chances, 10.263 shots and 0.91 expected goals per game.
When they hit the road, those metrics jump to 2.33 big chances, 13.33 shots and 1.44 xG per 90 minutes.
I’m electing to play the Asian line of -0.25 in case there is a draw, but I also don’t hate a look at the home team on the moneyline.
Pick: Las Palmas -0.25 (+109)
