Have you ever had that sinking feeling when your Amazon package says "Delivered," but your front porch somehow resembles a wasteland void of brown boxes? Are you worried that the Grinch may strike this Christmas, with your online orders in his crosshairs? You’re not alone. A fresh data study from The Action Network sheds light on where you're more likely to encounter the dreaded porch pirate.
The number crunchers here anlayzed Google searches per 100k population for keywords like "porch pirates" and "stolen package," residents' stolen package reports within the last three months, and larceny-theft statistics from homes in 2023.
By weighing these factors—reports at 50%, searches at 25%, and theft statistics also at 25%—researchers calculated the implied probability of becoming a porch pirate victim.
You can dive into the full data set right over here.
Key Findings
It's no surprise that states with large populations and busy lifestyles rank high for porch piracy, but some results may catch you off guard. Texas tops the list with a whopping 30% implied probability of package theft.
Apparently, even cowboys aren't safe from modern rogues. Here's a snapshot of these figures:
- Texas leads with 30% implied probability.
- 5% of Texans have seen their packages vanish.
- North Carolina follows at 14% probability.
- Florida reports over 3,000 cases of theft from residences, landing it in third place.
Top 10 Worst States For Porch Pirates
- Texas: With nearly 30% likelihood, Texas holds the gold medal in porch piracy, reflecting its vast size with 45 searches per 100K residents and 5% reporting thefts recently. Who knew they'd be wrangling package pirates instead of cattle?
- North Carolina: At 14.4% implied probaility, this state's numbers are bolstered by 41 searches and a matching residential theft tally of 5,321.
- Florida: Known for its sunshine and scantily clad beachgoers, Florida is also known for digital detectives, leading with 348 searches per 100K and maintaining a third-place rank at a 13.1% chance of porch pirates striking.
- California: World-renowned as the home of entertainment, it’s no wonder California performs its own act of magic with a 12.2% theft probability. Six percent say their packages disappeared without so much as a magic wand.
- New York: Famous for its hustle and high rises, the Empire State doesn’t let its reputation slumber, marking an 11.9% probability with a backdrop of 5,053 home thefts.
- South Carolina: With 10.7% probability and 47 searchers per 100K, South Carolina knows the value of being vigilant.
- Washington: Clearly, it takes more than just rainy weather to wash away around 4% of package thefts and a 10.6% implied probability.
- Virginia: Sporting a double-play with 142 searches and a 10.1% chance, Virginia’s citizens seemingly have an eagle-eye on their front doors.
- Kentucky: Here we find a conundrum of eagerness to report thefts but keeping a relatively low search stats, with a surprising 9.7% likelihood and 8 searches.
- North Dakota: There's a paradox brewing—11% report package loss, while tangible crimes hit only 361. Call it the state of quiet vigilance.
| Rank | State | "Porch Pirate' + related terms Google Searches Per 100K Population | Percent of population reporting a stolen package in the last 3 months | Larceny-Theft from Residence or Home Statistics (2023) | Implied Probability of Porch Pirate Theft |
| 1 | Texas | 45 | 5% | 12,529 | 29.8% |
| 2 | North Carolina | 41 | 3% | 5,321 | 14.4% |
| 3 | Florida | 348 | 3% | 3,270 | 13.1% |
| 4 | California | 18 | 6% | 6,191 | 12.2% |
| 5 | New York | 17 | 6% | 5,053 | 11.9% |
| 6 | South Carolina | 47 | 3% | 2,917 | 10.7% |
| 7 | Washington | 28 | 4% | 4,232 | 10.6% |
| 8 | Virginia | 142 | 6% | 2,563 | 10.1% |
| 9 | Kentucky | 8 | 12% | 1,281 | 9.7% |
| 10 | North Dakota | 9 | 11% | 361 | 9.2% |
Whether you live in urban jungles or relaxing countryside bliss – staying alert and maybe investing in some extra surveillance is a wise choice. After all, porch pirates are out there, patiently waiting for their chance to swipe your next delivery!
So, there we have the odds of porch pirates striking in your state. Hopefully you can stay frost this festive season, and watch out for these Grinches stealing your packages from your porch!
Methodology
The data team at The Action Network calculated the implied probability of porch pirates stealing packages based on:
- Google searches per 100,000 of state population of “porch pirates”, “stolen package” and more keywords
- The percent of residents per state that reported a package stolen within last three months
- Larceny-Theft statistics from residence or home in 2023 (raw number)
We then applied the following weighting to the above data points to calculate the implied probability:
Implied Probability Weighting:
- Percent reporting stolen packages: 50%
- Average Monthly Searches: 25%
- Larceny-Theft from Residence: 25%
This content is created to inform and entertain those interested in implied probabilities and odds – the same people who may also want to check out these PrizePicks Promo Code or bet365 Promo Code pages.
You can find the full dataset here.
Sources:
Google Keyword Planner
FBI Crime Data Explorer
Security.org Package Theft Survey
