On Wednesday, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released odds for the 2019 MLB major awards. At the time, Bryce Harper remained unsigned, but was still the National League favorite, anyway. Just one day later, he signed with the Phillies.
Bettors will have a full month to make up their minds and determine where the value lies. At this point, I believe Westgate has released all of the MLB futures for the 2019 season. The rest of the market is still lagging behind, but now that the Harper fiasco is over, I imagine they will catch up soon.
American League MVP
Of course, Mike Trout is favored to bring home the hardware at a short 2-1 payout. Every year, AL MVP bettors have to ask themselves whether it's even worth betting or not thanks to Trout's dominance. In his seven full seasons, he's won two MVPs, finished second four times and finished fourth in an injury-shortened 2017.
Last year, Mookie Betts managed to out-Trout Trout by posting a ridiculous 10.4 fWAR — a better all-around season than Trout has ever had. He was listed between 20-1 and 25-1 before that season and has dropped down to 5-1 for his troubles.
>> Sign up for The Action Network's daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
The next tier includes Aaron Judge, Alex Bregman and Jose Ramirez. Judge was injured for a chunk of the 2018 season, but has 50-home run potential and a solid glove in right field.
Bregman broke out with a very impressive 7.6 fWAR last year and was the fifth best hitter in baseball per wRC+ at 157. Ramirez is coming off his second consecutive season in which he finished third in the MVP race, but oddsmakers continue to doubt him considering his 18-1 price.
National League MVP
The recently signed Bryce Harper is favored in the National League at +600, but the race is expected to be more of a toss-up considering there's no NL version of Trout.
Of his potential suitors, Harper signing with the Phillies probably gives him the best shot of winning the NL MVP. He no longer has the defensive or baserunning abilities that he did when he first entered the league, and must rely on gaudy offensive numbers to win this award. Had he signed with the Giants or Dodgers, he'd have to hit in west coast pitcher-friendly parks. Instead, he makes his home at the launching pad in Philly.
Right behind him is Nolan Arenado, who just inked an extension with the Rockies. Arenado has had four consecutive top-10 MVP finishes, but is seemingly always hurt by the fact he plays at Coors Field.
The newest Cardinal, Paul Goldschmidt, is next at 10-1. Despite having the third most fWAR since 2013, he's never won an MVP. He has two second place finishes and a third place to his name, but could be in a nice spot with his new team in a competitive division.
You may notice that Christian Yelich, the reigning MVP winner, is all the way down at 18-1. He was a 200-1 long shot last year and took home the hardware thanks to an electric September that helped the Brewers win the NL Central. However, his home run total seems unsustainable thanks to a ridiculous home run to fly ball ratio.
Stay tuned in the coming weeks for value picks and analysis for both MVP and Cy Young awards.
