MLS Odds, Picks: Best Bets For Nashville vs NYCFC, Miami vs Montreal, More (Feb. 25)

The MLS campaign begins Saturday with a late-afternoon clash on national TV, when Nashville SC host New York City FC.

Following that, the slate continues with 10 Saturday night games, including Inter Miami hosting CF Montreal and Real Salt Lake heading out to the Vancouver Whitecaps.

Ready for a triple-header of betting action on one of the world’s most unpredictable soccer leagues? Let’s get to it.

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Nashville vs NYCFC

Nashville return to the Eastern Conference after a year shuttled to the West. Meanwhile, NYCFC are two seasons removed from winning the 2021 MLS Cup and have seen a string of veteran exits from the squad after losing last year's East final.

But from a betting angle, what’s interesting here is both teams have narratives worth fading.

Nashville's reputation as one of the tighter defensive teams in the league is more well-earned on the road, and City's high-flying attacking brand in the last two seasons is built primarily on numbers accumulated at home.

With both teams losing key pieces, it's not perfect to project last year's results to this season's coming games. However, the kinds of losses each squad endured in the offseason would also suggest the value on the total here being grouped closer to the middle of the bell curve.

There are two plays here I see value in. More conservatively, I like NYCFC to score 1 or 2 goals on a team multi-goal wager at -155 odds and an implied 60.8% probability. That cashed on 22-of-34 occasions between Nashville’s home games and NYCFC’s away matches, a 64.7% rate. 

As a more aggressive alternative, I also like playing the overall total to land on exactly three goals at +310 odds and an implied 24.4% probability. That wager cashed on 11-of-34 occasions in the same sample of games — a 32.4% rate.

Quillen's Picks: 1 or 2 goals – NYCFC Multi-Goal (-155 via BetMGM), 3 goals – Exact Total Goals (+310 via FanDuel)

Miami vs Montreal

With respect to total goals, Miami and their deeper block under Phil Neville had some of the most pronounced home/away splits in the league last season.

The Herons were simply a lot more willing to be adventurous at home, with a wager on the over 2.5 cashing on 13-of-17 regular season home games against only 6-of-17 away.

In CF Montreal, they are likely to find a willing dance partner for a higher-scoring contest.

The Canadian outfit actually scored 33 of their 63 goals on their travels last season. And although they endured a managerial change, new boss Hernan Losada might play an even more manic style than predecessor Wilfried Nancy.

In his one complete season with D.C. United, Losada guided one of the league's bargain rosters in an adventurous style that resulted in 13of-17 away games that went over the total.

If it wasn't for the loss of key creative pieces from both squads — without obvious replacements — this would be a spot to even sell a goal and play the over 3.5 goals

Even so, this is more about Losada’s tactical setup overall and Neville’s varying approach at home versus away. That’s enough reason to back a higher total, even if some marquee attacking talent is missing.

Quillen's Pick: Over 2.5 (-124 via FanDuel)

Vancouver vs Salt Lake

The Vancouver Whitecaps have rarely been above the middle tier of the Western Conference, but in a year-and-a-half under manager Vanni Sartini, they have turned BC Place into a fortress.

The Whitecaps have won 10 home matches in each of their last two seasons, and Sartini owns a 64% home win percentage since taking over in the middle of the 2021 campaign.

Salt Lake have been an average MLS road team, but they have lost in their last two trips to British Columbia. A look at each team’s offseason suggests the Whitecaps have a more complete squad at the moment to build on momentum from a strong finish to 2022.

By contrast, Salt Lake parted with a couple key players, including striker Sergio Cordova, who now dons a Whitecaps jersey.

In a league where the average team home team wins about 49% of the time and the Whitecaps have been a bit above average, the only choice is to play at +132 odds and an implied 43.1% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Vancouver ML (+132 via BetRivers)