Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal will face off in the UFC 313 prelims on Saturday, March 8.
Here's my Morono vs. Leal prediction.
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal Odds, Prediction
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Leal Odds | -700 |
| Morono Odds | +500 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (+100 / -130) |
Projection: Carlos Leal (88.1%)
Carlos Leal lost in his short notice UFC debut as a near two to one underdog; a LOT of people (myself included) bet the Leal side; nobody was happy about it.
It was closer to 30-27 Leal than 29-28 the other way; yet one judge scored the fight 30-27 for his opponent. All 16 media scorecards, and nearly 88% of fan scorecards had the bout for Leal; 11 of the media scorecards and 48% of fan scorecards thought he won all three rounds.
Leal will draw 21-fight UFC veteran Alex Morono on Saturday as the most substantial favorite on the card. Leal is four years younger than Morono but also owns a two-inch reach advantage and is significantly more athletic in terms of speed and power.
Moreover, Leal has the cardio to sustain his fighting style for 15 minutes.
Morono has looked slower in his recent fights since his knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in December 2022. And I worry that his durability is beginning to fade, too.
Aside from using Leal as a parlay piece (projected -747) up to -700, I don't project actionable value on either side of the moneyline or total, and I'd likely prefer to take stabs on Leal to win in Round 2 (+490) and Round 3 (+650) as opposed to his decision prop (projected +207, listed +220).
After the robbery, I doubt Leal will let another fight slip to the judges, no matter how dominant he looks.
Bets
- Carlos Leal as a Parlay Piece (up to -700)
