Check out my Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev predictions, picks, and odds for UFC 313 on Saturday, March 8
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Odds, Prediction
| Pereira Odds | -118 |
| Ankalaev Odds | -102 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-175/+235) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 313 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Seattle with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for a 12-fight card, featuring a Light Heavyweight title bout between current champion Alex "Poatan" Pereira and top contender Magomed Ankalaev.
Pereira is unbeaten at 205 pounds and is seeking his fourth consecutive title defense since winning Light Heavyweight gold in November 2023. With a victory, Poatan would move to 9-1 in the UFC and stake his claim as the promotion's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter, ahead of Jon Jones and Islam Makhachev.
Anakalaev is 11-1-1 (1 NC) in the UFC – fighting to a draw with Jan Blachowicz for a vacant belt in December 2022. A native of Dagestan, Anakalaev seemingly has the grappling ability to test Pereira, a former professional kickboxer, on the mat like few other opponents have.
Here's my Pereira vs. Ankalaev prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pereira | Ankalaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2 | 20-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:38 | 11:37 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/7/1987 | 6/2/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.46 | 3.64 |
| SS Accuracy | 63% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 2.37 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.14 | 0.92 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 31% |
| TD Def | 70% | 86% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Pereira is the bigger man in the match – one inch taller with a four inch reach advantage – and he carries a power advantage over every Light Heavyweight (and most Heavyweights) at striking range.
Moreover, Pereira fights at a higher pace and is the more efficient striker, out-landing opponents by a margin of 1.9 strikes per minute (6.1 landed, 4.2 absorbed) at distance, compared to 0.6 for Ankalev (3.8 landed, 3.2 absorbed).
Poatan's calf kicks, in particular, should pose a serious problem for Ankalev, who was limited by low kicks in his draw with Blachowicz (absorbing 25 of 29 leg strikes). Pereira will look to chop at Ankalev's base from the outset, which will limit his opponent's movement in the striking and disable his ability to explode through takedowns as the fight extends.
Ankalaev has a clear grappling advantage—he controls 88% of grappling and clinch positions in the UFC, compared to 8% for Pereira.
There are specific fights where Anakalaev made things more difficult on himself by refusing to wrestle; still, he has averaged 1.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance in the UFC.
When he first switched from kickboxing to MMA, Pereira was a white belt, but he is a tremendous athlete who has worked to consistently shore up the defensive grappling side of his skillset. He seems more confident at defending takedowns in each subsequent fight.
That said, Ankalaev's top pressure is a different problem than he has faced in the past; if Ankalaev completes a takedown, he could hold the position until the end of the round.
Additionally, Pereira has tired much more quickly when forced to grapple opponents than when permitted to strike at distance for long stretches comfortably; Ankalaev should look to grapple almost immediately to take advantage of a likely cardio advantage in the championship rounds.
He doesn't have to complete takedowns, necessarily – even wearing on Poatan in the clinch up against the fence could help drain the energy of the older, more potent striker.
While we have seen Ankalev wobbled – by Thiago Santos, in a fight where Ankalev frustratingly didn't shoot a takedown until the fourth round – he's shown excellent cardio in five-round fights.
Conversely, I have concerns about Poatan's gas tank if Ankalaev proacticely grapples, and questions surrounding his durability in another firefight. Aside from his knockout loss to Israel Adesanya, Pereira has been wobbled badly in several fights – including his recent win over Khalil Rountree – and the cumulative damage of seven fights within two years could add up in his late thirties.
If Ankalaev's price improves anytime after Round 1 – but he still hasn't grappled by that point – I'd bet him live before he mixes things up.
Pereira vs. Ankalaev Prediction
I projected Magomed Ankalaev as a 57% favorite (-133 implied odds) in this matchup and I would bet his moneyline up to -125, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.
Additionally, I project value on the fight to reach a decision, setting the fight to go the distance around 38% of the time (+164 implied odds) compared to listed odds of +180 (35.7%), and an average decision rate of roughly one-third in five-round light-heavyweight fights since 2018 (closer to 39% in three round fights).
Moreover, I show correlated value on Ankalaev to win by decision (projected +258, listed +310) or most any SGP iteration of Ankalaev and the fight to go longer. I may save that prop for round-robin tickets.
And to reiterate, I like Ankalaev as a live bet at a better price anytime after Round 1; particularly if he hasn't grappled to that point in the fight.
Sean's Pick: Magomed Anakalaev (-103 at BetRivers); bet to -125 | Ankalaev Live Anytime after Round 1
